Global markets are at a pivotal juncture as July 29, 2025 unfolds, with traders balancing geopolitical shifts and central bank signals. A temporary thaw in trade tensions has boosted risk sentiment – the U.S. clinched tariff agreements with key partners like the EU and Japan, easing fears of an escalatory trade war. Notably, Europe agreed to $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases over three years as part of a new trade deal, bolstering commodities demand. However, uncertainty lingers with U.S.-China negotiations (resuming in Stockholm) and the absence of a finalized U.S.-Canada trade accord, keeping some tariff risks alive. In this fraught backdrop, major central banks meet this week: the Federal Reserve kicks off its meeting (July 29–30) amid speculation it will hold rates steady and reiterate a data-dependent easing bias, closely followed by the Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada – all likely to echo the “wait-and-see” stance adopted by the ECB last week. Markets are also digesting a slew of top-tier data: the first look at Q2 GDP (with U.S. growth expected around +2.5% and Eurozone near 0%), inflation readings (U.S. PCE and Eurozone CPI), and upcoming U.S. jobs numbers. Recent releases have painted a picture of resilience in the U.S. economy – for example, June retail sales jumped 0.6% MoM (beating forecasts) and durable goods orders fell less than feared – reinforcing optimism that growth is rebounding in Q2. Meanwhile, Eurozone business surveys hint at an economy muddling through trade disruptions, and China’s mixed signals (Q2 GDP at 5.3% but weakening industrial metrics) temper global growth hopes. Together, these dynamics set the stage for volatile forex market action on July 29, as traders weigh Fed rate bets, economic data surprises, and commodity swings. Below we break down the technical outlook for AUD/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/CAD on 5-minute charts from July 25–29, linking the price action to key fundamentals and offering trade ideas and near-term expectations for each pair.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD, 5-minute chart from July 25 through mid-day July 29, 2025.
The AUD/USD pair started the week on a positive footing before succumbing to renewed selling pressure. Late last week, Aussie bulls attempted to stage a relief rally – the pair rose toward 0.6580 in early Monday trading (July 28) amid broad risk-on sentiment after the U.S. struck tariff truces with Europe and Japan. This initial breakout quickly turned into a bull trap, however, as sellers emerged around 0.658. On the 5-minute chart, a lower high formed near that level, and momentum shifted downward. The failure to sustain gains above 0.6560 (a minor intraday resistance) triggered a sharp reversal. A series of bearish 5-minute candles mid-Monday saw AUD/USD slice below its prior range support around 0.6530, signaling that bears had reclaimed control. Volatility spiked on Monday’s downside break – a rapid 50+ pip drop – and the pair settled into a clear downtrend of lower highs and lower lows heading into Tuesday. By the European morning of July 29, AUD/USD had plunged to 0.6500, its lowest level of the period, before finding some footing. Notably, the 0.6500 handle acted as psychological support, with buyers cautiously defending this round number after the steep slide.
From a technical perspective, short-term indicators confirm the bearish bias. The swift descent broke an ascending trendline that had provided interim support during the late-July bounce, and the pair remains well below its 50-period moving average on the 5-minute timeframe. In fact, attempted recoveries were capped by the 50-MA, which has turned into a dynamic resistance overhead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) became oversold during the selloff, but its subsequent uptick has been muted – a sign that bullish momentum is weak. We see a modest positive RSI divergence as the pair stabilized near 0.6500 (momentum inching higher while price made marginal new lows), hinting at exhaustion in the downmove. Still, any rebounds appear corrective at this stage. Former support levels are now acting as resistance: for instance, the broken 0.6530 floor and the 0.6560/80 zone (Monday’s high) are immediate barriers for a recovery. Unless AUD/USD can reclaim the 0.6580 region (also near last Friday’s highs), the short-term trend remains bearish. A descending channel is evident on the intraday chart, and the pair would need to break above ~0.656 to escape it. On the downside, a clean break of 0.6500 would expose the next support around 0.6465–0.6480 (an area of interest from earlier July), potentially accelerating selling as stop-loss orders get tripped below the round figure.
Fundamental drivers have largely aligned with the technical weakness in AUD/USD. The Australian dollar’s initial strength on Monday came from a wave of risk appetite – optimism over trade deals and stimulus efforts boosted commodity-linked currencies early in the session. However, as the day progressed, focus shifted to the hawkish tilt in U.S. rate expectations and persistent concerns about global growth, undermining AUD. Traders are increasingly positioning for the Fed to hold rates steady this week, reinforcing U.S. dollar strength across the board. For Australia, attention is on forthcoming inflation data – Q2 CPI is due July 30, and expectations of a cooling inflation print (after prior high readings) may be curbing AUD bulls ahead of time. Moreover, China’s economic outlook – critical for Australia’s commodity exports – has turned cautious. China reported solid headline GDP growth of 5.3%, but weak investment and a 9.2% plunge in steel output signal flagging industrial demand, which dampens the outlook for Australian resource exports. This has weighed on AUD sentiment. Meanwhile, commodity correlations have been unfavorable for the Aussie. Gold prices have been sagging, hovering near three-week lows as the U.S. dollar strengthened and safe-haven demand eased amid the trade truce. Australia, being a major gold producer, often sees its currency move in sympathy with gold – and indeed, gold’s downturn has removed a tailwind for AUD. On the flip side, iron ore and base metals (key Australian exports) have seen only tepid support, reflecting those China demand worries. The one bright spot is generally positive risk sentiment in equity markets – U.S. stock indices are holding near highs – but even that has a perverse effect: with investors less fearful, money has rotated out of havens like gold and into yield, benefiting the higher-yielding USD over the AUD. In short, fundamental currents (Fed vs RBA outlook, China concerns, commodity moves) continue to skew bearish for AUD/USD, complementing the technical downtrend.
Trade Idea
Given the prevailing downtrend, our bias is to sell AUD/USD on relief rallies. A potential setup is to sell around 0.6550, near the broken support-turned-resistance (also close to the 5-min 50-MA). This level coincides with the pivot (0.6557) identified by technical models. Stop-loss could be placed above 0.6585 (just beyond Monday’s high), as a break there would invalidate the current bearish structure. Take-profit targets might include 0.6480, aligned with next support, with an extension toward 0.6460 if bearish momentum persists. This trade rationale: strong U.S. fundamentals and a cautious mood on China/Australia data are likely to keep AUD rallies limited, barring any dovish surprise from the Fed or a sharply higher Australian CPI. One should beware of volatility around tomorrow’s Aussie CPI release and the Fed announcement – any hint of dovishness from the Fed could spark a short-covering bounce in AUD/USD. But absent that, the path of least resistance appears lower.
Market Outlook
In the near term, AUD/USD looks poised to remain under pressure. The pair’s inability to sustain any rebound above 0.6550 suggests that sellers are in control. We anticipate a grind lower to the mid-0.6400s if the upcoming economic data cooperate with this narrative. A softer Australian CPI or any risk-off turn (e.g. negative headlines from U.S.-China talks) could be the catalyst for a fresh leg down. Conversely, a surprisingly weak U.S. consumer confidence reading or a dovish tone from the Fed on July 30 could spur a relief rally – but likely only toward 0.6600, which now stands as a formidable resistance zone. Overall, the bias for AUD/USD remains bearish unless we see a fundamental shift. Traders should watch the 0.6500 level – a firm break below it on volume would reinforce the downtrend, while consolidation above could precede a short-term corrective bounce. In summary, expect cautious, range-bound to bearish trading on AUD/USD heading into the Fed decision, with the Aussie dollar struggling to gain traction amid global growth jitters and a robust greenback.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD, 5-minute chart from July 25–29, 2025. A steady downtrend took hold as the euro failed to sustain early-week gains.
The EUR/USD pair has been in a decided downtrend over the past few sessions, with bears tightening their grip as the week began. Last Thursday’s ECB meeting (July 24) set a cautious tone – the ECB left rates unchanged at 2.0% after a year of easing, opting to wait for clarity on trade tariffs before any further moves. The euro initially found some support after that decision (and on some better-than-feared Eurozone PMI data), and by early Monday (July 28) EUR/USD pushed up toward 1.1700. In fact, during the very start of this week, the pair briefly climbed as high as ~1.1740 in thin liquidity (likely aided by broad USD softness when Asian markets reacted to the US-EU trade truce). However, this strength was fleeting. On the 5-minute chart, bulls lost momentum right around the 1.1700/1.1720 zone, which coincided with a prior support-turned-resistance from late last week. Once the euro failed to break higher, a lower high was cemented and sellers seized control. The ensuing drop was exacerbated as key supports gave way – notably, the 1.1600 level (which had held on Friday) was broken on Monday during the U.S. session. The breach of 1.1600 triggered a wave of stop-loss selling, and EUR/USD swiftly fell to 1.1570 by Monday’s close. Early Tuesday (July 29), euro bears pressed further, driving the pair down to a nadir of 1.1530 (a new 3-month low). This sequence of lower highs and lows is clearly visible on the chart, forming a downward-sloping channel. Each attempt by euro bulls to stabilize has been met with fresh offers – even minor bounce attempts (e.g. to 1.1615 overnight) were sold into aggressively. By mid-day Tuesday, EUR/USD was only marginally off its lows, trading in the mid-1.15s and struggling to mount any meaningful recovery.
Technically, momentum oscillators and trend indicators confirm the bearish structure. On the 4-hour and intraday views, moving averages are rolling over – the 50-period SMA on the 4H chart is now above current prices and acting as a dynamic resistance ceiling. In fact, EUR/USD’s failure to regain that 50-SMA (around the 1.1650 area) during bounces reinforces the downward bias. Short-term RSI on the 5-minute chart has frequently dipped into oversold territory during selloffs, reflecting strong bearish momentum, but has not signaled any major divergence yet – suggesting selling pressure remains persistent. We can identify an ascending trendline from last week that was decisively broken on Monday, which added fuel to the bearish move. Importantly, 1.1570 (Monday’s low) had been a minor support; once it gave way in early Tuesday trade, it opened the door to the next support around 1.1510, which is a level highlighted by technicians as an interim target. Indeed, the pair nearly reached that level before buyers emerged. For now, 1.1570 (the broken support) and 1.1600 (round-number, also near the 20-period EMA on hourly charts) have turned into immediate resistance on any bounce. Above that, 1.1700–1.1710 is a key resistance zone – this was the last major support that crumbled; technical analyses note that as long as EUR/USD stays below ~1.1710, the bearish bias prevails. On the support side, if 1.1510 is clearly breached, the next chart support is around 1.1445 (the S2 level from recent analysis and roughly a mid-March swing low). Overall, the short-term trend is down, and it would take a push back above 1.1700 to even begin to neutralize it.
The fundamental backdrop has largely fueled euro weakness and USD strength. After the ECB’s meeting last week delivered a no-change, no-surprise outcome, euro bulls were left without a catalyst. ECB President Lagarde emphasized a “meeting-by-meeting” approach and gave no hints of further easing given inflation is around 2% and policy is already accommodative. This wait-and-see stance, combined with investors betting that if anything the next ECB move could be a cut (due to Trump’s trade war weighing on EU growth), has limited the euro’s appeal. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s stance appears comparatively hawkish – Chair Powell has signaled an intent to hold rates steady for now, and U.S. data strength has markets thinking the Fed can afford to be patient. This policy divergence (ECB with an easing bias vs. Fed on hold) has widened interest rate differentials in the USD’s favor, pressuring EUR/USD lower. Additionally, the Eurozone economy is showing scant momentum: flash Q2 GDP due on July 30 is expected to be flat to +0.1%, far below U.S. growth, and July’s Eurozone CPI is forecast around 2%. Essentially, Europe is stagnating just as the U.S. might be re-accelerating – a narrative that invites euro selling. The ongoing trade storyline also cuts both ways for the euro. On one hand, the U.S.-EU trade deal removed the threat of an immediate tariff escalation on European goods, which is positive for sentiment. On the other hand, the deal reportedly involves a 15% tariff on EU exports to the U.S. in exchange for other concessions – a scenario that, while better than a full-blown trade war, still acts as a drag on EU growth prospects. This may be why the euro’s trade-war relief rally was so short-lived. Moreover, global risk appetite improving has actually funneled flows into the dollar (as U.S. assets yield more), rather than into the low-yielding euro. We also see evidence of safe-haven unwinding – assets like the Swiss franc and gold are weaker this week, which traditionally correlates with a weaker euro when the dollar is the beneficiary of capital flows. Finally, the U.S. has had a string of robust economic indicators: aside from GDP and jobs optimism, U.S. consumer resilience has been notable (retail sales +3.6% YoY in H1) and even manufacturing orders (durables) weren’t as dire as expected. This contrasts with Europe, where consumer and business confidence (e.g., Germany’s Ifo index, not explicitly mentioned but likely soft around this time) remain subdued. All these factors have contributed to the U.S. dollar’s broad strength and the euro’s slide.
Trade Idea
The path of least resistance for EUR/USD is lower, so we favor a sell-on-rallies approach. An attractive zone to consider shorts would be around 1.1600–1.1620, if reached, as this area contains the broken support and 1.1600 parity that may now cap any bounce. A stop-loss could be placed above 1.1650 (just above the 50-period moving average and a recent swing high). The first target would be a retest of the 1.1520–1.1500 support zone (taking partial profits near the recent low around 1.1530, and aiming for 1.1500 which is a psychological level just below the S1). If bearish momentum persists (for instance, on a strong U.S. GDP surprise or very dovish ECB-speak somewhere), a secondary target could be 1.1445 (the next major support as noted). This trade aligns with the idea that Fed-Eurozone rate divergence and any risk-off waves (e.g., from geopolitical events) will continue to favor the USD over the euro. One risk to be mindful of is the Fed meeting outcome: a sudden dovish turn by the Fed (e.g., emphasizing downside risks or hinting at future cuts) could weaken the dollar and spur a short-covering rally in EUR/USD. Therefore, traders might keep positions light ahead of the FOMC and possibly re-enter after the news. Barring that, selling the euro on strength remains a logical play in the current environment.
Market Outlook
The near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish, with the pair’s fate closely tied to central bank messaging this week. In the coming days, downside risks predominate: the euro could probe fresh lows if U.S. data continue to outperform or if the Fed maintains a confident tone on the economy. A clean break below 1.1500 would be a significant bearish signal, potentially opening up a swift move toward the mid-1.14s. However, traders should be cautious around event risk – the Fed decision on July 30 and Eurozone GDP on the same day could spark volatility. It’s conceivable that EUR/USD sees a relief bounce if the Fed surprises dovishly or U.S. numbers disappoint, but any rebound is likely to be limited to the 1.1650-1.1700 region unless there is a seismic shift in fundamentals. In all, the bias is for euro weakness amid strong dollar tailwinds. The market is effectively pricing in a tale of two economies: U.S. resilience vs. European sluggishness. As long as that narrative holds and interest rate differentials widen, rallies in EUR/USD should be sold. We expect the pair to trade with a heavy tone, and only a climb back above 1.1710 (the key pivot from last week) would signal that the euro is staging a more meaningful comeback. Until then, global sentiment and yield spreads favor the dollar, keeping EUR/USD on a downward trajectory.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD, 5-minute chart spanning July 25 to July 29, 2025. The pair rebounded strongly after finding support near 1.37.
The USD/CAD pair has seen two-way volatility in recent sessions, but with an underlying bullish tone as the U.S. dollar regained ground. After peaking above 1.3750 late last week, USD/CAD underwent a pullback on Friday and into Monday’s Asian session, coinciding with a bounce in oil prices and broad risk-on mood which benefited the Canadian dollar. On the 5-minute chart, this pullback found a floor just under the 1.3700 level – an area that has proven to be a key psychological support. Indeed, buyers consistently stepped in around 1.3680–1.3700, establishing a short-term double bottom in that zone. This successful defense of 1.3700 laid the groundwork for a bullish reversal. As Monday (Jul 28) progressed, upward momentum built sharply. Around the start of the New York session Monday, USD/CAD spiked higher from the 1.3690s, breaking out of its morning consolidation range. This surge was partly triggered by a soft patch in the Canadian dollar: one catalyst was news that OPEC+ would increase oil production (announced July 28), which knocked oil off its highs and put pressure on oil-linked currencies. The result was a quick USD/CAD rally through 1.3730. Once 1.3750 (a previous intraday high) gave way, buy stops were activated, propelling the pair to a fresh high near 1.3775 by early Tuesday. We see that volatility picked up significantly during these moves – evidenced by long 5-minute candles on the chart – reflecting rapid flows likely tied to commodity price swings and positioning ahead of the Fed. By Tuesday mid-day, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3740s, holding the bulk of its gains. Short-term price action shows the pair riding a modest uptrend line from Monday’s low, with higher lows at 1.369 and 1.372, respectively. The bulls remain in control as long as those trend supports hold.
Technically, momentum favors the upside for USD/CAD in the immediate term. The pair’s ability to stay above the 1.3700 pivot is a bullish sign – this level not only held as support but also coincides with the pivot identified by technical models (1.3679) for potential bounce. With that floor intact, USD/CAD has re-entered a short-term bullish trend. The 5-minute chart shows prices now consistently above key moving averages (e.g., the 50- and 200-period MAs on M5), which are starting to turn upward, indicating positive momentum. Additionally, RSI readings have been in bullish ranges (pullbacks have seen RSI bottom out around the mid-40s and then turn up), suggesting dips are being bought. We also note the presence of an “inside bar” breakout – Monday afternoon’s tight range (roughly 1.3720–1.3740) was broken to the upside, signaling continuation. In terms of levels, immediate resistance is now the recent high ~1.3775. If buyers push beyond that, 1.3800 looms just above – a round number and likely an area of profit-taking. Support levels to watch include the 1.3700 handle (a clear line in the sand for the bullish bias) and below that, around 1.3670 (the next support marked by a minor swing low). Notably, analysts have cited 1.3755 as a key hurdle – a confirmed break above 1.3755 was expected to act as a bullish catalyst toward 1.3780, which essentially played out with the run to 1.3775. Thus, the 1.3750-1.3780 zone is a crucial resistance band; a sustained break through it would likely herald a move to 1.3800+. On the flip side, losing 1.3700 support would be the first warning sign for bulls, possibly inducing a pullback to 1.3670 or even the 1.3640 region (a stronger support from earlier in July, and near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upswing). For now, trend indicators favor continuation higher – stability above 1.3700 keeps the short-term uptrend intact, whereas any slip back below that level could put USD/CAD back into a choppy range instead of a directional move.
The fundamental picture for USD/CAD has been a tug-of-war between commodity price influences and relative monetary policy expectations. A key driver for the Canadian dollar is oil prices, and we saw that relationship in action: at the start of this week, crude oil staged a rally, with WTI crude surging about 2.4% on July 28 to ~$66.7/barrel. This spike was fueled by the positive trade news (the U.S.-EU deal and hopes of a U.S.-China truce) and technical support in oil markets. A rise in oil tends to strengthen the CAD (since Canada is a major oil exporter), which is why USD/CAD initially drifted lower early Monday. However, the oil rally lost some steam by Monday afternoon – partly due to OPEC+ confirming increased output for coming months – and crude pulled back from highs. As oil’s gains moderated, the Canadian dollar’s boost faded, allowing USD/CAD to rebound. In essence, CAD’s oil-linked advantage was short-lived, and the bigger force became broad USD strength. The U.S. dollar’s bid was reinforced by rising U.S. Treasury yields and safe-haven flows ahead of the Fed. Additionally, on the monetary front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is meeting this week (widely expected to hold rates). The BoC, like the Fed, has an easing bias but is in no rush to cut given inflation remains above target in Canada. Recent Canadian inflation data surprised to the upside, suggesting the BoC will stay on hold, which in theory supports CAD. Yet, that effect has been muted because the Fed likewise is on hold – so interest rate differentials aren’t shifting in Canada’s favor. If anything, uncertainty about global growth and trade weighs more on the Canadian outlook (being a smaller, trade-sensitive economy) and thus can weaken CAD. One interesting geopolitical angle: the U.S. has not yet reached a trade agreement with Canada (as it did with the EU and Japan), meaning Canada still faces potential tariff risks. Over the weekend, it was noted the U.S. aims to finalize deals with Canada and others to avoid tariffs snapping back – but until that happens, investors remain wary. This overhang may be contributing to the CAD underperforming other risk currencies. On top of that, risk sentiment in equity markets – while positive – has favored U.S. assets (helping USD) more than Canadian assets. U.S. stocks are rallying on strong earnings, which tends to pull investment toward the U.S. and support the greenback. Meanwhile, gold’s decline and general dollar strength have created an unfavorable environment for all non-USD currencies, CAD included. Summing up: rising oil gave the Loonie a temporary lift, but the overarching narrative of a robust U.S. dollar and lingering trade uncertainties has dominated, resulting in net upward pressure on USD/CAD.
Trade Idea
Given the constructive technical setup and supportive fundamentals for USD/CAD, one strategy is to buy on dips. We would look to buy around the 1.3700–1.3720 area, which is a support zone and close to the 20-period moving average on intra-day charts. This area also aligns with the pivot support (1.3679–1.3700) identified by analysts. A stop-loss could be placed just below 1.3670 (to accommodate a brief false break of 1.3700, but exiting if the next support at 1.3670 is lost). The first target would be a retest of the 1.3775 recent high, with a potential extension to 1.3800/1.3810 (which corresponds to R2 resistance and a round-number magnet). The rationale for this trade: U.S. dollar strength – underpinned by safe-haven flows and strong U.S. data – is likely to persist at least until the Fed meeting, and oil’s upside may be limited by increased supply and global demand concerns, capping CAD strength. Additionally, if the Fed meeting passes without dovish surprises, USD/CAD could break higher. One should monitor the BoC announcement (if any unexpectedly hawkish tone emerges, it could briefly boost CAD). But absent a major catalyst, buying USD/CAD dips has a favorable risk/reward, aligning with the short-term uptrend and fundamental bias. As always, caution is warranted if sudden news (e.g., a positive surprise Canada-U.S. trade deal or a sharp rebound in oil) hits the wires, as that could reverse the trade’s premise.
Market Outlook
In the immediate future, the outlook for USD/CAD appears mildly bullish, albeit within a somewhat range-bound context by longer-term standards. The pair is gravitating toward the upper end of its recent range, and a break above 1.3800 could unlock further upside (next targets might be around 1.3850). Our expectation is that USD/CAD will remain supported on dips, thanks to the convergence of a few factors: steady-to-firmer U.S. dollar demand, a cautious BoC, and only a partial recovery in oil prices. If market sentiment remains relatively positive (no risk-off shock), CAD could find intermittent support, but likely not enough to push USD/CAD dramatically lower. Key event risk includes the Bank of Canada meeting on July 30 – while no change is expected, any commentary acknowledging high inflation might momentarily strengthen CAD. Still, unless oil prices stage a larger rally or the Fed pivots dovishly, USD/CAD’s bias is tilted upward. We foresee the pair trading in a higher band, possibly 1.3680 to 1.3800, with an upside drift. Only a definitive drop back below 1.3700 would signal a loss of bullish momentum and a potential consolidation phase. Conversely, new highs beyond 1.3800 would affirm the uptrend and could spur a move toward the mid-1.38s before sellers step in. In summary, the global backdrop of a strong USD and stable-to-soft commodity prices points to a firmer USD/CAD, with the Canadian dollar likely needing either a surge in oil or a surprisingly dovish Fed to turn the tide in the short run.
Global Macro Summary
Across the global markets, sentiment on July 29, 2025 is cautiously optimistic yet finely balanced. The trade détente engineered by Washington – striking deals with some allies and extending talks with rivals – has reduced one major tail risk for now, instilling hope that the worst of the tariff wars might be over. This has translated into pockets of risk-on behavior: equities are hovering near record highs and oil has rallied off its lows. Yet, under the surface, there is a pervasive sense of caution. Investors know that the devil lies in the details – even with new agreements, 15% tariffs on transatlantic trade will reshape business costs, and negotiations with China and others remain delicate. Moreover, the focus is rapidly shifting to central banks and economic data. Global liquidity conditions hinge on what the Fed does next: a reaffirmation of its pause stance could keep financial conditions stable, whereas any hawkish surprise could send ripples through emerging markets and commodities. Meanwhile, economic indicators are painting a mixed picture. The U.S. economy is outperforming expectations in many areas (jobs, consumer spending, investment), creating a stark contrast with a sluggish Eurozone and an uncertain Chinese outlook. This divergence is driving capital flows – strengthening the U.S. dollar and weighing on currencies like the euro and AUD that are tied to slower economies or commodity cycles. Inflation dynamics are also in play: with price growth in the U.S. creeping up (core PCE is in focus) and Canada’s inflation elevated, central bankers are reluctant to add stimulus, whereas Japan and Europe are more concerned about sustaining growth. In the coming days, the world’s financial tone will be set by a flurry of events – the Fed and BoC decisions, GDP releases, and the U.S. jobs report – all against a backdrop of geopolitical subplots from U.S.-Russia tensions to Middle East uncertainties. For now, global markets are navigating this crossroads with guarded optimism: stock bulls are running, but currency traders are hedging bets. The overall theme tying everything together is confidence in the U.S. and caution elsewhere. Until proven otherwise, that means U.S. dollar strength, firm commodity prices but range-bound, and selective risk-taking will likely continue. Traders should remain nimble as this delicate equilibrium could shift quickly with the next headline or data point. In summary, July 29 finds the global market mood tentatively upbeat but braced for impact, as participants await clarity from policymakers and confirmation that the economic expansion can endure despite past trade turbulence and looming policy inflection points.