The forex market saw significant intraday moves on Thursday, June 12, 2025, driven largely by a broad weakening of the US dollar. A mixed U.S. inflation report mid-week put pressure on the greenback, sending the dollar index down toward 98.00 and propelling major currencies like the euro and pound to fresh highs. EUR/USD surged above the 1.1500 mark to its strongest level since April, GBP/USD rallied toward the key 1.3600 resistance, and USD/JPY plunged as low as the mid-143.00s amid a surge in yen buying. Volatility spiked around the New York session on Wednesday, suggesting a news catalyst (likely the inflation data and central bank signals) jolted the market. Through the late U.S. session and into Thursday’s Asian trading, the dollar’s softness persisted: the euro and pound consolidated near their highs, while the yen’s strength kept USD/JPY on the back foot. Traders are parsing these moves for clues about trend continuation or potential reversals as we head into the European session.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD 5-minute chart up to the morning of 12 June 2025.
The EUR/USD pair extended its short-term uptrend, with bulls firmly in control. Early on Wednesday the euro was trading in a tight range, but momentum shifted dramatically mid-day as EUR/USD broke out above the psychological 1.1500 level. A sharp rally ensued, carrying the pair from the mid-1.14s to roughly 1.1530 at the peak. This breakout was accompanied by a spike in trading volume, indicating strong conviction behind the move. Notably, the pair is trading above its 50-period moving average on the M5 chart, which is sloping upward – a sign of sustained bullish momentum. The short-term bias remains bullish, with the euro riding a minor ascending trendline on the chart that reflects its upward trajectory.
In the provided 5-minute chart, higher highs and higher lows are clearly visible, underscoring the dominant uptrend. After the initial surge, EUR/USD has been consolidating just above 1.1510, digesting its gains. Former resistance around 1.1500 has turned into support on pullbacks, with buyers stepping in to defend that level. On the upside, the session high near 1.1530 is the first resistance to watch, aligning with a weekly resistance level identified around 1.1520. A clear break above 1.1530 could open the door to the next psychological target at 1.1600. Technical indicators reflect strong momentum – for instance, the RSI on this intraday chart is elevated (though nearing overbought territory), signaling robust bullish pressure but also cautioning that the rally may be stretched in the very near term. Volume bars on the chart jumped during the breakout, reinforcing that the move had significant participation. Overall, EUR/USD’s tone is positive, with intraday support around 1.1500 (and further down at 1.1470) and resistance at 1.1530, then 1.1600. As long as the euro holds above its newfound support, the path of least resistance appears to be to the upside.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD 5-minute chart up to the morning of 12 June 2025.
The GBP/USD also enjoyed a strong rally, mirroring the dollar’s broad decline. After a sluggish start to the week, the pair found a floor around 1.3480 on Wednesday before launching into a vigorous uptrend. On the M5 chart, the British pound’s ascent is evident in the series of bullish candlesticks that propelled GBP/USD from the mid-1.34s to a high just below 1.3600. This ~100-pip climb was punctuated by a particularly large bullish candle in the mid-New York session, where volume surged as the pair burst through interim resistance (likely around 1.3520-1.3540). By Wednesday evening, GBP/USD was trading firmly above its 50-period EMA, signifying that short-term momentum had flipped decisively upward. The primary trend on the intraday chart is now bullish, with price action riding along an upward-sloping trendline.
As of Thursday morning, the pound is hovering near 1.3560–1.3580, slightly off its peak but still well within reach of the critical 1.3600 resistance. That 1.3600 level stands out as a notable hurdle – it’s a round number and the upper bound of recent ranges, and the latest rally has brought GBP/USD “to attack the critical resistance level at 1.3600”. The provided chart shows the pair briefly pausing just below this ceiling. If buyers manage a clear breakout above 1.3600, it could trigger another leg higher (with little obvious resistance until the mid-1.36s). However, momentum indicators are flashing caution: the RSI on the 5-minute timeframe hit overbought levels during the rally and has started to roll over with negative overlapping signals, hinting that the bullish momentum might cool in the immediate term. It would not be surprising to see a bit of consolidation or a pullback after such a steep rise. On the downside, support can be observed around 1.3540–1.3550 (recent minor pullback zone and roughly where the 50-period MA lies). A deeper retracement could retest the 1.3500 region, but as long as GBP/USD holds above that and especially above 1.3480 (the week’s low), the short-term bias remains upward. In summary, GBP/USD is trending higher with strong upside momentum, but it is approaching a key inflection point at 1.3600 where traders will watch for either a breakout or a correction.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY 5-minute chart up to the morning of 12 June 2025.
The USD/JPY pair experienced a sharp reversal to the downside, highlighting a surge in yen strength as investors flocked to safe havens. On Wednesday, USD/JPY initially attempted to climb, reaching up toward ¥145.5 (a level not far from its recent highs). However, around mid-session the pair succumbed to heavy selling pressure. The 5-minute chart captures a dramatic plunge: USD/JPY fell from the mid-¥145s to about ¥144.1 in one swift move, likely corresponding with the U.S. data release that undermined the dollar. This drop sliced through short-term support levels and was accompanied by a noticeable volume spike, indicating a rush of traders selling the pair. After the initial fall, USD/JPY made a couple of feeble bounce attempts, but each rebound formed a lower high. The pair remained under a downward intraday trend, with price action stepping lower through the Asian session. By early Thursday, USD/JPY was trading around ¥143.7–¥143.8, having broken below the critical support near ¥143.95 that analysts were watching. Importantly, the decline brought the price down to test its 50-period EMA from above, and that moving average (along with the ¥144.0 area) is now acting as an immediate resistance on any recovery attempts.
Despite the recent fall, we should note that on a multi-session basis USD/JPY had been in an uptrend, so this pullback could be a significant inflection. The short-term trend context is somewhat mixed: the primary uptrend is being challenged by this sudden drop, yet the overall structure still shows the pair trading above some longer-term support lines (e.g. an uptrend bias line visible on higher timeframes). Technical signals suggest the sell-off has pushed momentum to an extreme — the RSI on the 5-min chart dipped into oversold territory, and we’re starting to see the first signs of a bullish crossover in that indicator. In fact, market analysts have noted that USD/JPY is “leaning on critical support at 143.95”, and with RSI now oversold, there are “positive overlapping signals” hinting at a possible rebound if support holds. For now, key support is around ¥143.5–¥143.9 (the zone of this morning’s low and the noted critical level). A definitive drop below ¥143.5 would be a bearish sign, potentially exposing the next support near ¥143.0 or lower. On the upside, any recovery will face immediate resistance around ¥144.5 (where the pair saw a brief bounce and the 50-period EMA hovers). Beyond that, ¥145.0 and the ¥145.5 swing high are further hurdles for buyers. In summary, USD/JPY is on the defensive, testing major support. Traders will be watching if the dollar-yen can stabilize and bounce from here or if continued risk-off sentiment will drive it further downward.
Market Outlook
Thursday’s forex action (so far) has been defined by USD weakness and technical breakouts in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, alongside a notable reversal in USD/JPY. The euro and pound have capitalized on the dollar’s slide – each breaking above recent range highs – while the yen’s safe-haven appeal has dragged dollar/yen to short-term lows. These movements suggest a shift in market sentiment: traders are positioning for a scenario where the Fed may turn more dovish (given softer U.S. inflation data) and where other central banks (ECB, BOE) could maintain or increase their policy appeal. Market participants will now look ahead to upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary to gauge if this dollar downturn has further to run. Key questions include whether EUR/USD and GBP/USD can sustain their bullish momentum without a pause (especially as they approach major resistance levels), and whether USD/JPY’s drop is a temporary correction or the start of a deeper decline.
Looking forward, we offer a brief outlook for each pair:
- EUR/USD: Bullish bias prevails. The pair is holding above 1.1500 support after breaking out. As long as 1.1500 holds, focus is on upside targets – with 1.1530 (today’s high) as immediate resistance and a potential move toward 1.1600 if the rally continues. A slip back below 1.1500 could signal a breather, but significant support lies around 1.1450.
- GBP/USD: Momentum is positive, but the pair is near 1.3600 – a pivotal resistance. A clear break above 1.3600 could ignite further gains (next resistance around 1.3650), whereas failure to break may lead to consolidation. Initial support is seen at 1.3540–1.3550 (recent pullback zone), with a deeper floor around 1.3500.
- USD/JPY: The pair is at a crossroads near ¥144.0. Holding above ¥143.5 (support) could spur a corrective bounce toward ¥144.5 or higher (trend resistance). However, if bearish pressure persists and ¥143.5 gives way, USD/JPY may slide toward the lower-¥143 or even test the ¥142.5–¥143.0 area next. Upside barriers include ¥145.0 and ¥145.5, levels that previously saw strong selling.
Overall, the short-term trend favors dollar weakness until proven otherwise. Traders should stay cautious around key technical zones (like EUR/USD 1.1530/1.1600, GBP/USD 1.3600, and USD/JPY 143.5) which will likely determine the next phase. A continuation of the current trends could see EUR/USD and GBP/USD extending their rallies, offering bullish opportunities, while USD/JPY might remain under pressure. Conversely, any signs of the dollar regaining footing – perhaps from improved risk sentiment or hawkish U.S. data – could trigger pullbacks in EUR/USD and GBP/USD and a relief bounce in USD/JPY. As always, prudent traders will watch for confirmation signals (such as how price behaves at support/resistance and changes in volume or momentum) before committing to new positions. With major event risk (like central bank meetings or further inflation readings) on the horizon, volatility is likely to stay elevated, making risk management crucial.