As we head into Thursday, June 19, 2025, global markets are positioned for a Fed-fueled dollar rally and volatile FX moves U.S. markets will open post-Fed commentary with investors on edge. According to Reuters, markets are “anxious” after Fed Chair Powell highlighted inflation and tariff risks, even as central banks hold steady. A spike in Middle East tensions is also weighing on risk appetite. The dollar is firm: EUR/USD is near multi-week lows around $1.148, GBP/USD is slipping near $1.34, and USD/JPY is hovering in the high-144s. Traders are now eyeing upcoming BoE, SNB and Norges Bank announcements alongside U.S. data and geopolitical news.
- EUR/USD: Collapsed from the mid-1.15s into the 1.1460 area overnight, reversing earlier gains as the dollar strengthened.
- GBP/USD: Plunged from ~1.3600 to about 1.3440 on broad USD strength and waning Sterling demand.
- USD/JPY: Rallied sharply above 145.40 before easing back to ~144.9; it remains near a short-term high as traders assess any pullback.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The euro’s technical picture is bearish. EUR/USD has breached key support around 1.1500 and is now testing the 1.1450 area. Momentum indicators (like MACD) likely turned down, and RSI is approaching oversold levels. Recent price action hints at a brief consolidation or minor bounce – analysts note a potential rebound toward 1.1555 before further declines. A broken channel and possible “double top” suggest sellers are still in control, but oversold readings imply any rally may be capped.
Trading Strategy: Bearish
- Entry: Look to short EUR/USD on rallies. A fade entry near 1.1490–1.1500 is attractive (this zone was prior support and may act as resistance).
- Stop: Place a stop above recent swing highs (e.g. above 1.1530) to guard against a sudden turnaround.
- Targets: Initial profit target near 1.1440. If 1.1450 breaks, aim for a move to 1.1400 or lower. A clean break below 1.1335 would signal a deeper drop toward the 1.1200 area.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
Sterling is also technically weak. GBP/USD has carved out a downward “wedge” pattern after failing to hold 1.35. Short-term moving averages are trending lower, and the pair is pressing a recent swing low near 1.3420. RSI is very low, suggesting a rebound might occur, but MACD and stochastics confirm bearish momentum. Analysts expect a brief rise to about 1.3535 (the top of the wedge) before another leg down.
Trading Strategy: Bearish
- Entry: Sell on strength. A good short entry is around 1.3520–1.3535 (just under the projected resistance).
- Stop: Place a stop above the pattern high (e.g. above 1.3560) in case the bearish pattern fails.
- Targets: Look for an initial target at 1.3380. Below that, a break of 1.3385 would confirm a drive toward 1.3300 or lower. (Bearish scenarios target as low as 1.3085 according to some forecasts.)
- Alternate Scenario: Only a decisive break above ~1.3800 (and the wedge’s upper trendline) would invalidate the bearish bias.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
Dollar/yen’s outlook is cautiously bullish. USD/JPY climbed through resistance around 145.00 into the 145.40s before pulling back to 144.9. The pair appears to be completing a triangle consolidation. Moving averages tilt upward, and buyers remain in control as price has briefly cleared the top of the pattern. A short-term pullback toward support near 143.95–144.00 is possible, but this zone is expected to hold and “fuel” the next advance. In sum, technical analysts favor a bullish correction: a drop to ~143.95 followed by a sustained rally.
Trading Strategy: Bullish
- Entry: Buy the dip. A long entry near 144.00–144.10 (just above that support) offers a favorable risk/reward. Alternatively, a breakout entry above 145.00 could signal a continuation of the rally.
- Stop: Use a stop below 143.50 on the dip trade, or below 144.50 if entering on a breakout.
- Targets: Aim first for 145.50–146.00. The next resistance lies in the 147.00–148.00 region (some forecasts even cite 148.65). Clearing 146.45 would open an extended move toward ~148–149.
Market Outlook
Traders should brace for a catalyst-packed session. The focus remains on central banks: Fed speakers and meeting minutes may sway the dollar, while the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank all announce decisions. Powell’s comments suggest U.S. policy is data-driven, so any surprise on inflation or tariffs could send shocks through FX. Geopolitics also loom large: further escalation in the Middle East could trigger safe-haven flows (jolting JPY and CHF) or move oil prices. In this environment, watch the dollar index (already at its strongest weekly level in months) and key FX levels noted above.