As we approach Monday, April 14, 2025, global financial markets are digesting a wave of influential data, most notably fresh insights into US inflation. The Core CPI report landed slightly above forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a cautious policy stance. As a result, traders are bracing for heightened volatility across major currency pairs, with sentiment shifting in response to updated inflation readings, central bank commentary, and broader macroeconomic trends.
In the currency space, EUR/USD showed mixed movement, buoyed early by dollar softness before retreating after US inflation data surprised to the upside. The euro’s momentum faded as investors weighed hawkish signals from FOMC members against a backdrop of slower European growth.
GBP/USD experienced a broad swing, climbing earlier in the session on upbeat UK GDP estimates, only to pare gains as the dollar rebounded following the US CPI print. Market sentiment around the pair remains fragile ahead of the BOE Credit Conditions Survey due Thursday morning.
NZD/USD traded with increased volatility, initially pushing higher on risk sentiment and a weaker greenback, but eventually retreated as investors digested the Fed’s inflation outlook and a generally firmer dollar into the New York session.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair drifted lower toward the 1.1010 level, reversing earlier strength after testing above 1.1060. The post-CPI shift in tone triggered a cautious pullback. MACD is turning bearish with the histogram sliding below the zero line. The Stochastic Oscillator is dipping out of overbought territory, suggesting potential downside continuation. RSI is leaning neutral but not oversold, giving room for further weakness.
Trading Strategy: Cautious Sell
Consider short positions below 1.1010–1.0990 with targets at 1.0960–1.0940 and stops above 1.1045. For bullish momentum, look for a breakout above 1.1065 with upside targets near 1.1100–1.1125 and stops just under 1.1015.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair retraced from near 1.2850 highs, dipping to the 1.2750 range as the dollar regained strength late in the day. Price action suggests a broad consolidation phase. MACD is flatlining near zero, while Stochastic shows a loss in upward momentum. RSI is mid-range, reflecting indecision.
Trading Strategy: Range Bias / Mild Bearish
Sell near 1.2760–1.2780 with targets at 1.2720–1.2690 and stop loss above 1.2810. Alternatively, if the pair rebounds above 1.2820, watch for bullish extensions toward 1.2860–1.2885, with stops below 1.2770.
NZD/USD
Technicals in Focus
The NZD/USD pair was choppy but ended lower near the 0.5570 area after attempting to climb above 0.5600 earlier in the session. MACD shows weakening bullish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator is heading lower, while RSI hovers just under the midpoint, favoring a possible pullback continuation.
Trading Strategy: Sell on Rally
Look to sell around 0.5585–0.5600 with targets at 0.5550–0.5520 and stops above 0.5620. Alternatively, if the pair breaks above 0.5625, expect a run toward 0.5655–0.5680.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, US inflation remains a dominant theme after Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in March, surpassing both expectations and the previous reading. Traders will now closely follow Friday’s University of Michigan inflation expectations and consumer sentiment reports for further clues on the Fed’s policy direction.
Elsewhere, UK GDP and industrial production figures could introduce short-term volatility for the pound, while Eurozone officials, including ECB President Lagarde, are scheduled to speak—possibly offering policy insight. Commodity-linked currencies like the kiwi will stay reactive to both US data and ongoing shifts in risk sentiment.
Overall, forex markets remain tightly focused on inflation dynamics and central bank tone, with potential for renewed volatility heading into the weekend.