As we head into Friday, November 22, 2024, global markets are set to experience heightened volatility driven by critical economic releases, including U.K. retail sales data, Eurozone PMI reports, and ongoing reactions to U.S. jobless claims and housing data. The U.S. dollar remains the focal point as traders assess mixed signals from the labor market and prepare for fresh data releases that could shape the trajectory of major currency pairs.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair faced significant selling pressure, falling below the 1.0500 mark amid ongoing U.S. dollar strength and mixed Eurozone economic data. The disappointing PMI data from the Eurozone added to bearish sentiment, pulling the pair to close near 1.0485. On the technical front, the MACD indicator suggests increasing bearish momentum, with histograms deepening in the negative zone. The 14-day RSI is nearing oversold territory, indicating limited room for further declines without a potential corrective bounce. The Stochastic Oscillator also signals oversold conditions.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.0500, targeting 1.0470-1.0440, with a stop loss above 1.0530.
- Alternatively, buy above 1.0530, with targets at 1.0560-1.0580, and stops below 1.0500.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair experienced steep declines, breaking through the 1.2600 level as weaker-than-expected U.K. retail sales data amplified bearish sentiment. The pair closed near 1.2590, indicating further downside risk. On the technical side, the MACD crossed into bearish territory, signaling increasing downward momentum. The 14-day RSI is neutral but tilting toward oversold levels. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator shows further downside potential.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.2590, with targets at 1.2560-1.2530 and a stop loss above 1.2620.
- Alternatively, buy above 1.2620, with targets at 1.2650-1.2680, and stops below 1.2590.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
The USD/JPY pair demonstrated heightened volatility, oscillating around the 154.50 level. The pair initially rallied but retraced some gains following the release of Japan’s trade balance data, which slightly exceeded expectations. Technically, the MACD remains bullish but is showing signs of waning momentum. The 14-day RSI is neutral, suggesting consolidation, while the Stochastic Oscillator is hovering near overbought territory, implying limited upside potential without a pullback.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 154.50, targeting 154.80-155.10, with a stop loss below 154.20.
- Alternatively, sell below 154.20, with targets at 153.90-153.60, and stops above 154.50.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on U.K. retail sales and Eurozone PMI data as key drivers of GBP/USD and EUR/USD, respectively. In the U.S., further reactions to jobless claims data and housing market figures could dictate the dollar’s direction. For USD/JPY, ongoing reactions to Japan’s trade balance data and risk sentiment will be critical. Traders should prepare for increased volatility as market participants react to these data points and potential central bank comments.
Markets remain data-dependent, with heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators and central bank communications expected to persist into next week.