After Thursday’s explosive Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, Friday’s forex session delivered an eerie calm. Major pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY paused their wild swings, offering traders a deceptive sense of stability. But don’t let the flat charts fool you as this could be the quiet before the next storm. With low U.S. holiday volume and lingering geopolitical tension, the market’s silence might be louder than it seems.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair exhibited only moderate movement on Friday, July 4, 2025, primarily consolidating in a narrow range after the previous day’s volatility. On Thursday, a strong U.S. jobs report (NFP) had sent the euro sharply lower, dropping it below the 1.1750 level. With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day on Friday, trading volume was thin and no major breakouts occurred. The result was a sideways, range-bound session, as the market digested the prior day’s move without any fresh catalysts.
Overnight/Asia: During the late Asian session and into the early European morning, EUR/USD traded sideways in the mid-1.17s. There was little follow-through from Thursday’s big drop – the pair hovered roughly between 1.1740 and 1.1760, showing a lack of momentum amid the holiday-thinned liquidity. Traders largely stayed on the sidelines, and price action was choppy but contained.
European Session: As European markets opened, the euro attempted a mild rebound. The price climbed from around 1.1745 up toward the 1.1780 area, suggesting a tentative recovery. However, this move stalled quickly – 1.1780 acted as intraday resistance, near a level that had been support before Thursday’s NFP plunge. The rally fizzled out, forming a minor double-top around that 1.1780 region as buyers lacked conviction. The quick failure of this uptick reinforced that the broader sentiment was still weak following the NFP shock.
Mid-day into U.S. (Holiday): Without the usual U.S. session volatility, momentum faded. EUR/USD drifted back down after the failed morning push and spent most of the day oscillating in a tight range. Essentially, the pair was trapped between about 1.1740 support and 1.1780 resistance, repeatedly bouncing off these barriers. No sharp reversals, breakouts or spikes occurred on Friday – the only large spike on the 5-minute chart remained the previous day’s NFP swing, which was not repeated. By the afternoon, the euro was back near the middle of its range, reflecting a market in consolidation.
Support & Resistance: Friday’s price action established a clear intraday support around 1.1740. This roughly corresponds to the low reached after Thursday’s drop (EUR/USD was trading near 1.1744 late Thursday). Sellers tried but failed to push the euro below that area on Friday. On the upside, resistance around 1.1780 capped all advances. The pair never came close to challenging the more significant 1.1800 level overhead. In short, 1.1740–1.1780 emerged as the day’s consolidation band where buyers and sellers balanced out.
Beginner Tips: For new traders, a quiet, range-bound day like this can be tricky. There were few strong trends to ride, and apparent breakouts – such as the mid-morning pop toward 1.1780 – were short-lived and reversed quickly. Chasing those small breakouts could lead to whipsaw losses. A better approach in such conditions is to recognize the range early and consider range-trading strategies (for example, selling near resistance and buying near support) once it’s clear the market is consolidating. Also, note how the major news event (NFP) on the previous day created a big move; beginners are often advised to be cautious around such high-impact news times. Friday’s calm after the storm was a reminder that after big news, the market often pauses – a time for patience rather than aggressive trading.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair spent Friday in a steadied holding pattern, showing limited volatility after Thursday’s sharp swings. The prior day’s events saw cable briefly dip below $1.3600 on the U.S. jobs surprise before bouncing back. On Friday, with no new drivers and U.S. traders offline, GBP/USD largely consolidated those moves, trading around the mid-1.3600s. The atmosphere was one of low momentum, as neither bulls nor bears managed to make a decisive push.
Asian Session: In overnight trading, the pound held its ground in the mid-1.36s. The pair was relatively flat, fluctuating mildly around 1.3650–1.3670. This steady behavior indicated that the market had found an equilibrium after the previous day’s volatility. There was no significant follow-up selling after Thursday’s drop, but also no enthusiasm to drive it much higher. Essentially, traders in the Asian session kept GBP/USD in a tight 20–30 pip range, reflecting caution and reduced participation.
European Morning: As Europe came online, a modest uptick occurred. GBP/USD inched higher and tested the 1.3700 region, attempting to build on its overnight stability. However, this push upward lacked conviction. The pair failed to decisively break 1.3700 – in fact, the foray above 1.37 was quickly rejected as selling pressure emerged. Analysts noted the “quick rejection of 1.37+ levels” for GBP/USD on Friday. In practical terms, this meant a bull trap: an early spike that might have lured in buyers abruptly reversed. After peaking in the upper-1.36s, the pound rolled over, unable to sustain the gains.
Mid-day & Afternoon: Following the rejection at 1.37, GBP/USD drifted lower again but only mildly. It found support ahead of the prior day’s lows – roughly in the 1.3640–1.3650 zone – and continued to ping-pong between that support and the lower-1.37 area. With the U.S. holiday, market liquidity was thin, and price action became choppy but directionless. Essentially, cable settled into a sideways crawl along ~1.3660 for the remainder of the day. No notable news or events hit the market, so the pair had no catalyst to break out of its intraday range. By the end of Friday, GBP/USD had barely moved from its opening levels, closing near $1.366 (down only a few pips, about –0.04% on the day, reflecting the standstill).
Support & Resistance: Intraday support formed around 1.3650, with buyers defending that level throughout the session. Notably, despite Thursday’s turbulence, the pair did not revisit the sub-1.3600 lows on Friday – the market seemed to treat mid-1.36 as a floor for the day. On the topside, resistance at 1.3700 was clearly reinforced. The failed rally showed that any price above 1.37 attracted sellers. In a broader sense, the ceiling at 1.3750 (the week’s highs) remained unchallenged, confirming that the uptrend stalled for now. The day’s tight range (~1.365–1.370) established interim levels that traders will watch moving forward.
Beginner Insights: For novice traders, Friday’s GBP/USD action highlights a few lessons. First, avoid chasing breakouts in low-volatility conditions – the attempt above 1.3700 was not supported by volume and turned into a false breakout. If a beginner had bought that breakout, they would have been caught when the price snapped back. It’s often wiser to wait for a clear confirmation (like a strong candle close above resistance) before assuming a breakout is real. Second, recognizing a range-bound market is key: once GBP/USD showed it was stuck between support and resistance, range trading (or staying out) became preferable to trend trading. Lastly, the influence of news was evident; the market was still digesting Thursday’s events. Beginners learned that the day after a major news release can be slow and unpredictable – a time to trade cautiously or simply observe. Keeping an eye on known support/resistance (like 1.3650 and 1.3700 in this case) can guide safer entry/exit decisions rather than impulsively trading on hope of a big move that never came.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair consolidated at high levels on Friday, following an outsized rally the day before. On Thursday, dollar-yen had surged on the strong NFP report, even spiking up to around ¥145.1 at one point. That was a multi-week high, bolstered by rising U.S. yields and a risk-on mood. However, on July 4 the pair did not extend that rise; instead, it flattened out just below the peak, with traders locking in profits from the earlier move. In the absence of U.S. market participation, USD/JPY’s momentum stalled, resulting in a relatively quiet session marked by slight retracement and range-bound trading.
Asian Session: During the Asian morning on Friday, USD/JPY remained buoyant near its recent highs. The pair was trading in the mid-144s, not far from the overnight top, as Tokyo markets reacted to the previous day’s dollar strength. There was an attempt to press higher – the rate inched toward the ¥145.00 psychological level a couple of times. Importantly, though, it never clearly broke above 145.00. Each approach into the high-144s met some selling interest, indicating that 145 (and the prior spike high) was acting as a strong barrier. The bullish sentiment from Thursday lingered, but without fresh impetus, buyers hesitated to push beyond the big 145 figure.
Late Morning – Europe: As the session moved into the European hours, upside momentum faded. USD/JPY began to pull back gently from its top. On the 5-minute chart, a series of lower highs emerged, suggesting that bulls were gradually taking profit. The lack of any new high above 145 turned the mood more two-sided. We saw the pair dip from about ¥144.7 down to the low-¥144.0s over several hours – a slow, controlled retreat rather than an aggressive selloff. This created a sort of intraday downtrend channel, albeit a shallow one (often resembling a bull flag pattern after a big climb). There were no sharp drops; instead, the yen strengthened slightly in a calm manner as the dollar’s rally paused.
Overall Range/Consolidation: For the rest of Friday, USD/JPY stuck to a contained range, roughly 144.2 to 144.8 in price. It did not revisit any deep support levels, nor did it challenge Thursday’s high again. In fact, by the end of the day the pair had inched down just a bit, closing around the ¥144.4 mark (a slight decline of around 0.2% on the day). This gentle dip reflects how the market consolidated gains: the dollar’s advance was checked, but there was no significant reversal. Essentially, USD/JPY spent the day sideways-to-down in a tight band, digesting the prior move and perhaps waiting for next week’s liquidity to pick up. Notably, no “flash” moves or sudden spikes occurred – the holiday conditions kept things orderly. Any volatility visible on the chart (like the tall candles from late Thursday) was a past event, not Friday’s doing.
Key Levels: Support on Friday emerged around the ¥144.0 level. Each time prices dipped toward 144.1 or 144.0, they found buyers – a sign that traders viewed that area as a short-term floor (and it’s near the round number ¥144, which often has psychological significance). On the topside, resistance was clearly the ¥145.0 threshold. The fact that USD/JPY spiked to ~145.11 on Thursday but couldn’t reclaim it on Friday underscores how formidable that resistance was. In between, interim resistance around ¥144.7–¥144.8 also curtailed intraday bounces. These levels boxed in the pair’s movements; effectively, 144.0 and 145.0 were the goalposts for Friday’s consolidation. Traders will be watching if 145 can be decisively broken in a fuller market, or if a deeper pullback below 144 occurs instead.
Market Outlook
USD/JPY’s behavior offers a few insights. First, after a strong trend (like Thursday’s surge), the market often enters a consolidation phase – as seen on Friday. Beginners might be tempted to assume a big move will just continue, but Friday was a lesson in how trends can stall at major resistance. In this case, jumping in to buy near ¥145 without confirmation would have been risky; the level held, and the pair actually drifted lower. A prudent new trader would wait to see if price can close above a key barrier (145.0 here) before expecting further upside. Second, the day’s narrow range meant that chasing price in either direction yielded little reward. In thin liquidity, experienced traders often stand aside or trade very short-term, and beginners should be even more cautious. Finally, note how psychological levels like ¥145.00 come into play – the market clearly treated it as a line in the sand on Friday. Understanding that such round numbers can act as magnet and ceiling helps in planning trades (e.g. avoiding long positions right below a big resistance without clear evidence of a break). Overall, Friday’s USD/JPY session was one for patience: a time to study the chart’s higher lows and lower highs, and to prepare for the next move once normal volatility returns, rather than forcing trades in a stagnant market.