Markets Shook. Charts Broke. What Just Happened on Friday the 13th?!
If you thought Friday the 13th was just superstition, the forex market proved otherwise. From explosive euro rallies to sudden pound pullbacks and a USD/JPY whipsaw fueled by geopolitical fear, traders were hit with a storm of volatility across all major pairs. US inflation numbers missed, global tensions flared, and price action went wild. Whether you were scalping breakouts or swinging reversals, this was one of those sessions that demanded full attention. Here’s your rapid-fire breakdown of what moved EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY—and what could be coming next.
EUR/USD
The euro surged sharply into Friday’s session, echoing weak US inflation and tariff news. EUR/USD climbed toward the 1.1600 area (near a 3-year high) after US PPI undershot forecasts, then gave back some gains. By early Friday, the pair had retraced toward the 1.1500 region. Traders noted a bullish trend of higher highs into 1.1600, but price fell back sharply once it slipped below ~1.1550. This intraday sell-off tested the 1.1500 floor before stabilizing.
- Resistance: ~1.1600 (Fri high, brief breakout) next around 1.1650 (technical target if cleared).
- Support: ~1.1550 (intraday pivot) and ~1.1500 (key bounce zone).
- Pattern: Failed breakout at 1.1600 followed by a double-top/reversal formation. EUR/USD made two swings near 1.1620 before collapsing on Friday. The break of the ~1.1550 “neckline” accelerated the decline.
- Implications: Traders are now eyeing the 1.1500–1.1600 range. A sustained move above 1.1600 could reopen 1.1650–1.1700 (echoing bullish momentum), while a drop below 1.1550 risks retesting 1.1500 or lower. In short, expect consolidation in this band next week. Watch US inflation data and Eurozone CPI – further USD weakness could keep EUR/USD elevated, whereas any risk-off or stronger dollar could pull it back toward 1.1500.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD also saw wild swings. After climbing to a roughly two-week high (~1.3620) on Thursday, the pound gave back much of its gain by Friday. Weak US inflation (CPI) data had initially bolstered sterling, with GBP/USD spiking into the mid-1.35s as traders priced in more Fed easing. However, profit-taking and a dip in risk sentiment sliced through the rally. By Friday’s early London session, cable was back down near ~1.353.
- Resistance: ~1.3620 (Thursday peak).
- Support: ~1.3550–1.3500. Analysts had flagged 1.3500 as a strong support zone. Price consolidated above 1.3500 on Friday.
- Pattern: A classic sharp reversal off the highs. Cable printed a long upper wick around 1.3620 and then rolled over, suggesting a near-term topping pattern. No clear multi-bar formation beyond the spike-and-drop candlesticks, but it resembles a short-term double-top.
- Implications: The pound may trade in a broad 1.3500–1.3600 range next week. Continued US dollar softness (driven by Fed cut expectations) could support GBP, but watch UK data (GDP, inflation) and risk flows. If GBP/USD holds above ~1.3500, bulls look for a retest of 1.3600; a break below could open 1.3450. Given BoE’s steady stance, traders see fundamentals still favoring GBP long-term, but near-term momentum is neutral after the big Thursday move.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY was highly volatile thanks to geopolitical headlines. Early Friday, reports of an Israeli strike on Iran triggered a risk-off shock: the yen jumped, sending USD/JPY down ~0.5% into the 142.80 area. This reached intraday support (~142.80) as safe-haven flows dominated. However, by later Friday morning, that panic subsided and the dollar rebounded, with USD/JPY climbing back toward ~143.65–143.70. (Recall that earlier in the week the pair had already been sliding below 143.50 on US inflation concerns.)
- Resistance: ~143.70–143.80 (Friday’s high). Price failed to clear the previous peak near 143.80.
- Support: ~142.80 (Fri low on geo-fear); below that lies 142.00 (psychological).
- Pattern: A V-shaped reversal. USD/JPY saw a one-day plunge and then sharp snapback. No long consolidation – just a swift selloff then recovery candlesticks. The gap down (~142.80) and immediate bounce suggests a classic panic-buy after capitulation.
- Implications: Next week’s direction hinges on risk. If Middle East tensions eases, yen is likely to weaken again; USD/JPY could target ~144–145 (bullish scenario). However, if fears remain or worsen, the yen stays bid: a drop back toward 142 or even 140 is possible. Also watch the BoJ – any hint of shifting policy could move USD/JPY. In the near term, traders should treat 143.00–143.50 as a battleground zone. A clear break above 143.80 would turn bias bullish, while failure signals more choppiness or a retest of 142.80 support.
Friday’s action on the 13th was a wild ride. All three pairs saw breakout/range‑reversal moves tied to US data and geopolitical news. Key levels have been established – EUR/USD around 1.1600/1.1500, GBP/USD around 1.3600/1.3500, USD/JPY around 143.70/142.80 – which will guide traders into next week. Volatility remains elevated: traders should watch for fresh catalysts and be ready for big swings as these technical thresholds are tested.