On 15 July 2025, global FX markets digested a slate of major data releases and high-impact events, triggering sharp intraday moves. Early Eurozone data surprised on the upside, but all focus shifted to U.S. inflation figures. Traders braced for U.S. CPI and Core CPI, along with speeches from Fed officials, while tariff headlines kept the dollar bid. This culminated in pronounced volatility on the EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and GBP/USD pairs (see charts below). We break down each pair’s 5-minute action, identify key technical signals (trends, breakouts, candlestick patterns), and link them to the day’s economic news to explain why prices moved the way they did.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD opened Tuesday in modestly bullish fashion after Eurozone May industrial production and ZEW sentiment both beat expectations (IP +0.6% vs –2.4%, ZEW 37.8 vs 35.3). Early on the pair climbed toward the prior day’s highs around 1.1690–1.1700. However, a sharp reversal occurred with the release of U.S. inflation data. Headline and core CPI both came in hotter than expected (June CPI +0.3% MoM, YoY 2.6%; Core CPI +0.3% MoM, YoY 3.5%), rekindling Fed rate-hike bets. The USD surged on these figures and safe-haven flows (tariff news also boosted the dollar), driving EUR/USD down through multi-day support.
- Trend & Breakouts: Tuesday’s action shows an initial uptrend giving way to a strong bearish breakout. The pair failed to sustain above ~1.1695 resistance and then sliced below the ~1.1680 intraday support level. This led to a large 5-minute bearish engulfing candle around 8:30 EDT (red candle on the chart) that broke the prior consolidation range and confirmed a downward breakout.
- Key Levels: Resistance near 1.1690–1.1700 (last week’s highs) capped the rally. On the downside, the drop stalled around 1.1650–1.1660, which aligns with previous swing lows. After the initial plunge, EUR/USD briefly rebounded toward 1.1680, but later returned to the mid-1.1670s by afternoon.
- Candlestick Patterns: The chart shows a classic bearish engulfing candle on the CPI print, signaling strong sellers. After the plunge, intraday candles were indecisive with longer wicks, reflecting volatility and profit-taking. There were no obvious reversal patterns after the drop, but the shallow bounce in the afternoon may resemble a minor “inside bar” consolidation near support.
In sum, EUR/USD started stronger on European data but then fell sharply as U.S. inflation hit yearly highs, consistent with analysts’ expectations that stronger CPI would bolster the dollar. The key breakout below 1.1680 opened the way toward session lows near 1.1655. Traders and algorithms picked up on the strong USD signals (dollar index hitting multi-week highs), reinforcing the downtrend. The intraday technical picture – failure at resistance and a decisive downside candle – would signal to traders that the euro’s rally run had ended for the day and a new short-term bias was in place.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD exhibited pronounced whipsaw moves on Tuesday, reflecting both U.S. data and Canadian news. Early pre-U.S-session volatility saw USD/CAD briefly jump above 1.3700 (Canadian dollar weakening) before pulling back. By mid-morning it was trading around 1.3670. The Fed/CPI reaction kicked in later: the strong U.S. CPI sent USD higher (lifting USD/CAD), but weaker-than-expected Canadian news pressured CAD. Canada’s June housing starts plunged (actual 253K vs 279K prior), undermining the loonie. Consequently, USD/CAD spiked again around 1.370–1.371 before retreating into the afternoon.
- Trend & Breakouts: The chart shows a volatile range with both an upside and downside breakout attempt. The USD initially spiked above 1.3700 (the key psychological resistance) but quickly reversed, indicating a false breakout. Later, as U.S. CPI confirmed, USD/CAD pushed above 1.3700 again, even briefly touching ~1.3710 (just shy of the 78.6% fib at ~1.3713). However, it could not sustain that level and fell back below 1.3680. In the afternoon, the pair consolidated in a 1.3665–1.3695 range.
- Key Levels: 1.3700–1.3710 was the upside pivot (daily resistance). This aligns with technical analysis placing heavy resistance near that zone (psychological barrier and Fibonacci resistance). On the downside, 1.3670 (the 20-day SMA) acted as near-term support – Monday’s analysis even flagged that level and anticipated range-bound trading into data. The lows around 1.3660–1.3670 held on multiple tests. Only a close below ~1.3670 would have opened the next support zone around 1.3600 (June lows), which did not occur on Tuesday.
- Candlestick Patterns: Early swings produced long wicks on both sides, showing indecision and stop-hunt activity around 1.3700. After the CPI shock, a strong bullish engulfing candle lifted USD/CAD above 1.3700, but this was immediately negated by a bearish engulfing candle – a sign of volatility (a “head-fake” top). The afternoon candles formed a narrow range with small bodies, reflecting traders pausing for the late North American session.
Overall, USD/CAD’s chop was consistent with the technical outlook: volatility spikes and chop were expected ahead of the inflation data. The pair’s failure to decisively clear 1.3700 confirmed that bulls could not maintain the breakout, and the ensuing trading was range-bound. Key Canadian data (housing starts) and the anticipation of Canada’s own CPI kept a lid on USD/CAD moves, even as U.S. inflation should have pushed it higher. In summary, USD/CAD moved within the anticipated congestion zone, briefly testing key levels on each side before settling lower by day’s end.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD was relatively contained compared to the other pairs but still showed clear bearish pressure. The pair traded in a roughly sideways-to-lower channel on Tuesday. An intraday rebound attempt in the morning (up toward 1.3450) failed at the prior high. From mid-morning onward, GBP/USD drifted down, approaching the 1.3400 area – a known support pivot. Notably, BoE Governor Bailey was scheduled to speak around 16:00 BST; prior remarks hinted at further cuts if needed, which weighed on the pound. With no major UK data on the docket, GBP/USD largely followed USD strength.
- Trend & Breakouts: On the 5-minute chart, GBP/USD shows lower highs and lower lows through the day. It failed to break above the earlier swing high (~1.3460), then progressively tested lower levels. A minor downside breakout occurred late-morning as it slid below 1.3440 support. However, the sharp trendline around 1.3400 held for most of the day. Traders viewed 1.3400 as a make-or-break point, in line with technical analysis noting that level’s importance. By afternoon, GBP/USD was grinding near that pivot but did not decisively break it.
- Key Levels: Resistance lies near 1.3500 (the 50-day SMA) which the pair had already broken below before Tuesday. The next ceiling was around 1.3460–1.3480 (recent swing high). On the downside, 1.3400 was the critical support/trendline (also the 2025 uptrend break and a Fibonacci zone). That level was briefly pierced but ultimately held, preventing a deeper slide during this trading session. If 1.3400 had yielded, the daily support around 1.3330 (May low) was next, as analysts pointed out.
- Candlestick Patterns: The price action was choppy. There were a couple of bearish continuation candles (solid reds) in late morning as GBP slid through 1.3440. A small bullish engulfing candle around midday hinted at a temporary halt in selling, but bulls could not push far, and the downtrend resumed. By afternoon the candles had small bodies and long wicks, reflecting indecision as traders awaited BoE commentary. Stochastics showed oversold conditions (similar to daily analysis), suggesting the slide was slowing toward the close.
In essence, GBP/USD was underperforming due to persistent dollar strength and dovish BoE signals. Technical studies had warned that breaking below 50-day SMA and 1.3400 could trigger larger losses, and while 1.3400 was tested, it did not fail on this day. The pair’s muted reaction to U.S. CPI (aside from following the dollar) underscores that UK factors (no fresh data, Bailey speech ahead) left it mostly range-bound. Traders took cues from the USD moves – when the dollar jumped on the CPI release, GBP/USD declined – and from local technical floors (1.3400 zone) that kept a lid on losses.
Key Takeaways
- USD Strength Drove Major Moves: Across all three charts, the U.S. inflation surprise and trade headlines boosted the dollar. EUR/USD and GBP/USD both fell as predicted on higher US CPI, and USD/CAD spiked briefly above resistance. This synchronized move underscores that on news days, cross-rates often mirror USD direction.
- Critical Technical Levels Tested: Each pair traded around well-known support/resistance points. EUR/USD couldn’t clear ~1.1690 and then fell through 1.1680. USD/CAD struggled with the 1.3700 fib barrier (false breakout) and held above the 1.3670 SMA. GBP/USD repeatedly probed the 1.3400 zone (a major trend pivot) but found buyers there. Recognizing these levels helped explain why moves paused or reversed.
- Volatile Candles and Ranges: The 5-min charts showed big engulfing candles and long wicks, classic signs of volatility and stop-hunting around news. Traders should be aware that such “spikes” often reverse quickly. In practice, waiting for a clear break of the range (rather than chasing the spike) would have signaled the day’s new bias for each pair.
- Macro Helps Explain Sentiment: Positive Eurozone data buoys EUR early, but strong US inflation flips bias to USD bullish. Soft Canadian housing (and later expected tame Canadian CPI) prevents Loonie strength. In the UK case, investor focus on BoE hints kept GBP on the defensive. Being aware of these releases (and Fed/BoE speeches) allows traders to connect technical moves with fundamental sentiment shifts.
- Prepared for Key News: The market’s behavior confirmed analysts’ previews. For instance, range-bound trading before the CPI and tariff headlines was expected. Once CPI hit, price action confirmed the narrative: USD breakout, EUR/GBP breaking support. In future, watching for these pivot events (e.g. next inflation, central bank talk) can pre-empt big intraday swings.
Overall, Tuesday’s session delivered a textbook example of how intraday charts react to big news: initial posturing around known levels, then explosive moves at data releases, followed by retracement to technical pivots. Understanding the candle patterns and support/resistance on the 5-minute charts, in tandem with the economic calendar, lets traders parse why each currency pair moved as it did. Beginners and intermediates alike can take away that sharp news-driven swings often fade or stabilize at key technical zones, so trading around those levels with clear stop-losses (rather than betting on immediate continuation of spikes) is a prudent strategy.