As we head into Monday, March 24, 2025, global markets are bracing for a cautious start to the week, with attention turning toward PMI data releases and a series of central bank speeches that could influence sentiment. After a turbulent prior week, traders are reassessing positioning as mixed economic signals and policy outlooks cloud the short-term direction of major currency pairs.
In the currency markets, the GBP/USD pair remained volatile, showing signs of recovery after a sharp mid-week decline. Traders are watching closely for any guidance from the Bank of England (BoE), as Friday’s weak retail sales data (-0.3% MoM, 1.0% YoY) and poor business investment figures (-3.2% QoQ) weigh on the pound. The pair’s bounce from the 1.2910 region hints at cautious optimism, but lingering downside risks remain.
The USD/CAD pair traded in a wide range, marked by sharp intraday swings. Despite upbeat Canadian GDP data (0.2% MoM), the Canadian dollar faced selling pressure, potentially due to softening oil market sentiment and neutral speculative positioning. The U.S. dollar’s resilience last week was supported by hawkish remarks from Fed officials and rising inflation expectations from the Michigan survey.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY saw an intraday reversal, initially pushing higher before paring gains. The pair remains sensitive to U.S. yields and was influenced by continued dovish tones from the Bank of Japan, which left rates unchanged earlier in the week. Despite Tokyo Core CPI holding steady at 2.2% YoY, Japanese inflation continues to show limited momentum, reinforcing the BoJ’s patient stance.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
GBP/USD found support near 1.2910 after a significant dip last week. The pair is attempting to stabilize but remains well below the psychological 1.3000 level. Technical indicators suggest consolidation, with the RSI recovering from oversold levels and price action forming higher lows in the short term. However, momentum remains weak.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 1.2910–1.2930 with targets at 1.2960–1.2980 and 1.3010–1.3030, with a stop loss below 1.2880. Alternatively, consider short positions below 1.2880 with targets at 1.2850–1.2820, with stops above 1.2930
USD/CAD
Technicals in Focus
USD/CAD spiked to highs around 1.4390 before reversing sharply toward 1.4345. The pair remains range-bound but choppy, reflecting mixed fundamentals. The 5-minute chart shows sideways price action with slight bullish bias as the pair stabilizes. Momentum indicators are flat, signaling indecision.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 1.4350–1.4370 with targets at 1.4400–1.4430 and 1.4460–1.4480, with a stop loss below 1.4320. Alternatively, sell below 1.4320 with targets at 1.4280–1.4250, and stops above 1.4360.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
USD/JPY continues to oscillate within a defined range, closing around the 149.30 level. The pair attempted to break above 149.60 but failed to sustain momentum. RSI is neutral while MACD shows waning bullish pressure. The pair could face headwinds unless U.S. yields push higher.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
Sell below 149.30–149.50 with targets at 149.00–148.70 and 148.40–148.10, with stops above 149.70. Alternatively, consider long positions above 149.70 with targets at 150.00–150.30, with stops below 149.30.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, markets will closely watch the S&P Global PMI readings across major economies, with early Monday releases from the Eurozone, U.K., and U.S. offering insight into economic momentum. The BoE’s Governor Bailey and multiple Fed speakers, including Barr and Bostic, are also on the docket, potentially offering clues into policy direction.
The U.S. dollar could continue to gain traction if PMI data supports the narrative of a resilient U.S. economy, while soft Eurozone or U.K. figures may weigh further on the euro and pound. The Japanese yen remains vulnerable to diverging policy paths, while the Canadian dollar will track oil prices and risk sentiment into the new week.
Overall, traders should prepare for a cautious but potentially active session, as global markets seek clarity amid mixed signals.