The forex market is in rebound on Tuesday, June 24, 2025 as Iran launched a missile barrage at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The attack, a retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, targeted U.S. and coalition forces stationed at Al Udeid. Safe-haven flows and risk-on swings sent the U.S. dollar into spasms: cable (GBP/USD) and euro (EUR/USD) prices popped and plunged on news shocks, while the loonie (USD/CAD) felt the drag of tariff tussles. In short: don’t blink. Each chart tells a story of frantic headlines, and today we break down exactly what sent GBP/USD, EUR/USD and USD/CAD rolling, and what it means next.
GBP/USD: Pound Parades Higher on Ceasefire Hopes
GBP/USD finally shrugged off its slide as global jitters pivoted from Trump’s active Middle East gambit back toward calmer shores. The pair soared Monday as the U.S. launched strikes on Iran – boosting oil and risk assets – then dropped the minute a tentative ceasefire was reported. In practice, Tuesday dawn saw cable retrace from a multi-week high (~1.3700) back toward 1.3560. This swing matches the technical chart: a round-trip rally from the 1.34 support zone, through resistance near 1.35–1.37, and a sell-off into the 1.3560 area on profit-taking.
Investors were cheered by reports of an Israeli-Iranian ceasefire, which sank safe-haven bids for the dollar and lifted the pound. “The global pivot out of the US Dollar” following the ceasefire catapulted GBP/USD above 1.3500 on Monday. That move came even as the UK economy remains sluggish: weak GDP and rising unemployment (highest in four years) have kept the Bank of England on the sidelines. In fact, better-than-forecast UK manufacturing PMI data briefly spiked GBP/USD to a weekly high around 1.370 before stalling. With Federal Reserve Chair Powell set to testify and U.S. politics in flux, bulls are daring higher targets (50-day MA ~1.3506 now cleared) while bears watch 1.3400–1.3420 as key support.
EUR/USD: Euro Wavers on Weak PMIs and ECB Cuts
If cable was a rollercoaster, the euro was a weathercock. EUR/USD slid under 1.1450 last week as eurozone PMIs flatlined and U.S. yields crept up, but by Tuesday the single currency had clawed back above 1.1500. As the ECB cut rates aggressively at its June meeting (deposit rate now ≈2.00%), European growth stalled – headline PMI held at 50.2, unchanged from May. Normally that wouldn’t buoy the euro. Yet traders note that EUR/USD’s chart shows a trough near 1.1450 on the panic selloff, then a rebound through 1.1500 on broader USD weakness.
Political maneuvering adds spice. Last week EU leaders met in Brussels and even struck a new EU‑Canada trade partnership, signaling multilateral cooperation. Still, the backdrop remains shaky: Russia’s war in Ukraine and Middle East tensions kept a lid on risk appetite, while Fed‐ECB policy divergence looms large. In technical terms, EUR/USD flipped a short-term downtrend, bouncing off its lower Bollinger band (seen at ~1.145) back toward 1.155. Key resistance remains ~1.1555–1.1570, with a break above swinging attention to 1.1600+. For now, the euro is stuck between faltering growth in Europe and U.S. dollar headlines – a struggle reflected by its choppy M5 chart.
USD/CAD: Trade Tension Drives Loonie Volatility
Talk about a cornered animal: USD/CAD surged to a one-week high around 1.3790 on Monday before snapping sharply back to ~1.3717 by early Tuesday. The lift-off came from American tariffs and Middle East safe-haven flows. President Trump’s administration recently slapped 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, putting Canada’s trade surplus in the crosshairs. Ottawa vowed retaliatory tariffs if no deal emerges, keeping the loonie nervous. At the same time, oil spiked on Israel-Iran escalations – normally bullish for oil‑exporting Canada – but USD safe-haven strength won out. Thus USD/CAD tore upward to challenge resistance near 1.380 (the 2025 high), as chart [4] confirms, before pulling in when ceasefire hope reined in oil.
Technically, USD/CAD is reacting to commodity swings and tariff news in tandem. The pair broke above its recent range (1.369–1.378) on news flows and tested the 1.3800 barrier, as forecast the day prior. A climb past that would open sights on 1.3845–1.3860. Conversely, a drop back below 1.372 could see it retesting the May lows near 1.3650. The takeaway: CAD is trapped between shaky oil optimism and downward pressure from American policy. With Bank of Canada likely to hold rates steady and U.S. job data coming, USD/CAD looks set for choppy trading ahead.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday’s wild ride leaves no shortage of drama on the horizon. US Fed chief Powell testifies Wednesday amid presidential budget battles, and ECB Deputy Governor Luis de Guindos speaks, all while EU leaders wrangle over policy next week. A U.S. elections cycle brewing on Capitol Hill will only amplify volatility. In short, traders should buckle up – these FX charts suggest even bigger swings ahead if politics and geopolitics keep stealing the show.