As we head into Wednesday, June 18, 2025, global markets are positioned for a session that could see heightened volatility. Investors are cautious ahead of a key U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate decision that analysts widely expect to result in no change. At the same time, the Bank of England will react to fresh inflation data (UK CPI jumped to 3.5% in April), while U.S. reports like unemployment claims and oil inventories loom in the calendar. Market mood has already shown signs of nervousness: Saxo Bank noted the U.S. dollar “rallied Friday as risk sentiment soured”, pushing EUR/USD toward critical support. With so many catalysts in play – from central banks to lingering inflation – traders are bracing for potential swings in the day’s early trading.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
On the EUR/USD 5‑minute chart, the pair has been sliding steadily since last week’s highs (around 1.1610) and found support in the 1.1470 area on Tuesday. A potential double-bottom has formed near 1.1475–1.1480 as buyers stepped in after the decline. The early Wednesday bounce is now testing minor resistance near 1.1505 (roughly the short-term moving average and a prior swing). Clearing that level would expose targets around 1.1550, whereas failure to clear ~1.1505–1.1520 keeps sellers in control. Overall, the immediate bias remains bearish unless the 1.1520–1.1550 zone is convincingly broken.
Trading Strategy
Look to sell EUR/USD on strength below the ~1.1520 area. For example, a short position under 1.1520 could target the 1.1470 zone first, then 1.1440, with a stop placed just above 1.1550. Alternatively, a clear break above 1.1530 would suggest a cautious long entry, aiming for 1.1560–1.1600 with a stop back below ~1.1500. These setups allow a play on a breakout in either direction while keeping risk contained – aggressive longs only make sense if the pair truly escapes the recent downtrend.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD chart is showing a similar bearish tone. The pair fell sharply from mid-June highs around 1.3550 and found tentative support near 1.3420–1.3430 (forming a possible double-bottom on the M5 chart). The small bounce into Wednesday is bumping up against resistance around 1.3470 (roughly the midpoint of yesterday’s range). If the 1.3470–1.3500 area holds as resistance, sellers will likely regain control and drive the pair back toward 1.3400. However, a sustained move above 1.3500 would shift momentum, exposing targets near 1.3550. For now, the near-term bias is down unless the 1.3470–1.3500 zone is convincingly cleared.
Trading Strategy
Consider selling GBP/USD on weakness under 1.3470. A short just below this resistance could aim for an initial target near 1.3420, with a secondary target around 1.3380, and a stop above 1.3500. Conversely, a clean break above 1.3500 would allow for a long entry, targeting 1.3550 (the top of the recent range) with a stop back under 1.3450. In both cases, manage risk carefully – GBP/USD has been volatile, and moves can extend quickly if a breakout occurs.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
USD/JPY has eased off recent highs (~145.38 on June 17), tracing a round-top/double-top pattern on the 5-minute chart. The pair is now probing support around 144.80, with Tuesday’s lows near that level. The first resistance to note is around 145.10–145.20 (yesterday’s high area). A clear break below 144.80 would signal more downside, targeting 144.50 and 144.20 next. Alternatively, a push above 145.10 could open the door back to 145.50. In summary, the intraday trend is flat-to-down, with sellers likely in charge unless 145.10–145.20 is cleared.
Trading Strategy
A breakdown under 144.80 (for example, 144.75 or lower) could be used to short USD/JPY. Targets would be near 144.50 and 144.20, with a stop around 145.10 to cap risk. On the other hand, a push above 145.10–145.20 could be a cue to buy, aiming for 145.50–145.70 (the prior highs), and placing a stop just below 144.80. Given the recent swings, both setups should be managed tightly – USD/JPY can reverse sharply if global yields or oil prices swing.
Market Outlook
After Wednesday’s events, traders will pivot to Thursday’s Bank of England interest-rate decision and any new UK data. Notably, U.S. markets will be closed for Juneteenth on Thursday, leading to lighter liquidity at week’s end. Looking ahead, central banks will remain in focus – Saxo Bank highlights that Bank of England and Bank of Japan meetings are among the top drivers of risk sentiment. Any fresh headlines (geopolitical tensions, commodity price moves or surprise data) could quickly shift dollar, euro and yen flows. In short, with the Fed expected to hold on Wednesday, attention will then shift to how the BoE and others react to current inflation pressures, while markets brace for a holiday-thinned trading environment.