Mid-week trading on Wednesday, July 9, 2025 unfolded amid high event risk and volatile market sentiment. Traders were digesting evolving trade war developments and central bank news that set the tone for intraday moves. Notably, the U.S. administration extended a looming tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1, temporarily easing immediate trade fears. However, this relief was paired with fresh threats of new levies on other countries, sending mixed signals and keeping investors on edge. This push-pull in trade sentiment saw the U.S. Dollar’s safe-haven appeal fluctuate throughout the session, creating choppy conditions across major forex pairs.
Meanwhile, the Antipodean currencies reacted to their own catalysts. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to hold interest rates at 3.85% (when a cut was speculated) lent support to the Australian Dollar. Across the Tasman, the New Zealand Dollar braced for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy announcement during the Asian morning, contributing to heightened volatility. The British Pound contended with domestic headwinds, as mounting UK fiscal uncertainty and expectations of Bank of England easing limited its upside despite the briefly softer USD. In the analysis below, we break down how NZD/USD, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD price action unfolded on the 5-minute charts, including candlestick behavior, trend changes, consolidation zones, breakouts, and notable intraday patterns or volatility spikes for each pair.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD 5-minute chart (July 9, 2025). The Kiwi saw a whipsaw around the RBNZ rate decision, marked by a sharp spike and reversal on the chart.
NZD/USD started the day trying to stabilize after a prior four-day losing streak. In late Asian session Tuesday, the pair had managed a rebound toward 0.6035 as the U.S. Dollar’s rally paused. However, coming into Wednesday the overall short-term bias remained bearish, with the pair still posting lower highs under a descending trendline. Early on July 9, trading was relatively quiet and range-bound as the market awaited the RBNZ’s rate decision (the central bank was widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.25%).
When the RBNZ announcement hit during the Asian morning, NZD/USD experienced a burst of volatility. The 5-minute chart printed a long whipsaw candle – a sudden spike and plunge as traders reacted to the news. This single event candle had a wide range (on the order of ~40 pips), with a long wick evidencing the indecision and stop-hunt around the release. Initially, the Kiwi spiked downward, extending its decline as the lack of a hawkish surprise from the RBNZ kept negative pressure on the currency. In fact, NZD/USD’s last intraday swing prior to 04:00 UTC was a move to fresh lows, reflecting the dominance of a bearish correctional trend on the short-term chart. The pair traded well below its 50-period EMA on the M5 timeframe during this drop, and momentum oscillators like RSI flashed oversold readings – a sign of intensified selling pressure in the immediate aftermath.
Importantly, NZD/USD found support just under the 0.5980 level on that volatility spike. The quick rejection of lows (price dipped briefly into the high-0.59s then snapped back) formed a bullish hammer-like candlestick on the 5-minute chart, signaling that buyers stepped in aggressively near that support. This created a potential double-bottom region in the 0.5980 area, as it was roughly in line with the prior day’s low (around 0.5995) where the pair had bounced before. Once the knee-jerk selling subsided, NZD/USD began a steady recovery. A series of small-bodied green candlesticks followed, indicating a shift to upward momentum as the Kiwi pair clawed back above 0.6000. By mid-morning, the pair had broken back above its pre-announcement consolidation range, reflecting a bullish intraday reversal from the earlier lows.
Throughout the rest of the session, NZD/USD maintained an upward bias but remained below key resistance around the 0.6030–0.6040 zone (just shy of Tuesday’s late high). The rebound lacked the strength to fully erase the week’s broader downtrend. Each attempt to push higher saw modest profit-taking, and the pair started to range between roughly 0.6005 and 0.6025 in the absence of fresh catalysts. Technically, the short-term trendline from earlier in the week – which had guided the bearish correction – was tentatively broken by the post-RBNZ bounce. Yet, NZD/USD’s inability to climb above the 20-day EMA near 0.6033 kept the near-term trend tilted downward on the larger scale. In summary, the Kiwi’s intraday journey was a two-phase story: an initial bearish extension on the RBNZ event followed by a sharp bullish reversal. The pair ended the session off its lows but still under overhead resistance, illustrating how quickly intraday sentiment can flip. Candlestick-wise, the presence of that long lower wick and subsequent higher lows signaled that a short-term bottom had likely formed, even as the broader outlook remained cautious.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD 5-minute chart (July 9, 2025). The Aussie dollar rallied on RBA news, only to be capped at resistance near 0.6535 before fading.
AUD/USD opened the session with a bullish undertone carried over from the previous day’s surprise at the RBA. On Tuesday, the Australian Dollar had rallied up to 0.6535 after the Reserve Bank of Australia shocked markets by holding rates at 3.85% (defying expectations of a cut). This move, combined with optimism from the U.S. tariff deadline delay, gave the Aussie a strong boost as trading began. On the 5-minute chart, 0.6535 quickly emerged as a key resistance – it was the intraday high set during the RBA spike and also roughly aligned with a technical swing high from earlier in the week. The pair tested this level twice during the global session: an initial push in early Asian hours and another attempt later in the New York evening. Both times, AUD/USD failed to break through, resulting in a double-top pattern around 0.6535 that defined the day’s ceiling.
After the early rally lost steam at the 0.6535 barrier, bearish forces began to assert themselves. The pair surrendered its gains and turned lower by mid-session, as bullish momentum from the RBA news faded and the U.S. Dollar firmed up broadly. Technically, the inability to clear 0.6535 prompted a reversal pattern. A series of small red candlesticks on M5 signaled that sellers were gradually taking control. Once AUD/USD slipped back below 0.6515 (a minor intraday support from the morning), the pullback accelerated into the early European session. This downswing carved out lower highs and lower lows, putting the pair back under its 50-period EMA – a shift that reinforced the bearish tilt in the short-term trend. In fact, as price retreated from the high, AUD/USD’s 5-minute candles showed long upper wicks, indicating repeated rejection of higher levels. Momentum oscillators also rolled over; the RSI, for instance, started reflecting the negative divergence as price tried and failed to make new highs. All these signals pointed to growing negative pressure on the pair.
By the time London trading was in full swing, AUD/USD had dropped to the 0.6500–0.6510 support zone. Notably, 0.6500 is a psychological round number and roughly the area of the prior day’s post-RBA retracement low. The down-move stalled here: the pair formed a base with a couple of candles showing long lower wicks, suggesting buyers were defending the half-cent level. This created an interim consolidation zone through the latter half of the day. For several hours spanning the U.S. session, AUD/USD oscillated in a sideways range roughly between 0.6508 and 0.6530. This range trade reflected a market in wait-and-see mode, likely as traders positioned ahead of upcoming risk events (such as the next day’s FOMC minutes). Within this range, there were brief upward flickers – for instance, news of China expanding a bond program supported the Aussie marginally – but each mini-rally met supply near the earlier highs.
In the end, AUD/USD’s intraday trajectory resulted in a rough round trip. The pair closed the session not far from where it began, demonstrating how initial risk-on enthusiasm gave way to a more cautious equilibrium. The failed breakout at 0.6535 was the defining technical feature – that resistance held firm and forced the pair back into its prior range. Candlestick analysis highlights a shooting star/engulfing combo at the session high (bearish reversal signals), followed by a cluster of small doji-like candles as the market drifted laterally into the close. Overall, the Aussie’s price action showed rejection of highs and resilient support at lows, painting a picture of indecisive sentiment. Despite intraday volatility, the bearish correctional tone prevailed on the short-term charts, as evidenced by trading under the EMA50 and continued negative RSI signals during downturns. Traders will be watching if 0.6535 remains a hard ceiling going forward or if improved sentiment can finally catalyze a breakout in subsequent sessions.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD 5-minute chart (July 9, 2025). The pound had a steep selloff mid-day (risk-off move), followed by a double-bottom around 1.3530 and a modest rebound.
GBP/USD endured a particularly volatile intraday ride, characterized by an early climb and a sharp selloff followed by a stabilization. In the first part of the day, the British Pound attempted to extend the rebound it had begun on Tuesday. (Sterling had bounced toward 1.3650 on Tuesday after Monday’s drop, aided by a briefly softer USD and the tariff implementation delay.) True to that momentum, GBP/USD ticked higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, approaching the mid-1.36s again in early European trading. However, this strength was fleeting. The pair soon ran into selling pressure amid a confluence of negative factors: renewed USD demand on risk-off flows and lingering UK-specific concerns. Mounting fiscal worries in the UK – including talk of higher future taxes due to expanded welfare spending – as well as speculation about the Bank of England cutting rates in coming months, cast a bearish pall over the pound. These fundamental headwinds translated into a swift technical breakdown once short-term support levels gave way.
Midway through the London session, GBP/USD abruptly reversed lower, erasing its earlier gains and then some. The decline turned into a cascade of red candles on the 5-minute chart, showing strong momentum for the US Dollar. The pair sliced below 1.3600 and continued to fall, triggering stop-losses and accelerating in a classic intraday downtrend. We saw consecutive bearish candlesticks with few upper wicks, indicating sustained selling with little retracement. By the early North American session, GBP/USD had plunged to an intraday low around 1.3530. This roughly 100-pip drop from the day’s peak was one of the more dramatic moves among major currencies for the day, underscoring a shift to risk-off sentiment and pound-specific pessimism. Technically, the pair fell alongside a bearish correctional bias line that had formed off the 1.3650 area – essentially a steep descending trendline guiding the collapse. Additionally, GBP/USD remained below its 50-period moving average throughout the slide, which helped “form an intensified negative pressure on the pair’s move” as noted by analysts. Momentum indicators confirmed the extreme move; the 5-minute RSI dipped into oversold territory (<30) as the selloff climaxed, reflecting how stretched the decline became before buyers finally stepped in.
The turning point came as GBP/USD hit the 1.3530 support area. This level proved significant – it was very close to the pair’s low from the previous day (1.3540s) and represented a 2-week low for the pound. The reaction here was telling: a pronounced bounce occurred when price approached mid-1.3530s, suggesting that demand emerged at a perceived bargain level. In fact, GBP/USD ended up forming a double-bottom pattern on the intraday chart. The first bottom was the initial 1.3530 low in the afternoon, and the second bottom materialized a few hours later during the early Asian session (just after 03:00 UTC on July 9) when the pair dipped to a very similar level again. Both times, the support around 1.3530 held firmly. The candlesticks at these lows showed long lower tails and bullish engulfing follow-through – classic signs of a bearish reversal exhaustion. Aiding this turn, the RSI indicator showed a positive divergence by the second low (higher RSI reading despite price equaling the previous low), and had begun to climb out of oversold territory, hinting at fading downside momentum.
In the aftermath, GBP/USD rebounded modestly off the double bottom. The relief rally lifted the pair up to around 1.3580–1.3590 by the end of the Asian session (early morning in London). This recovery was enough to put GBP/USD back above its 5-minute 20-period moving average, though not above the 50-period EMA – the latter remained a resistance ceiling capping the recovery attempts. Indeed, the broader intraday structure was still one of lower highs; the bounce high near 1.3590 was below the pre-drop peak of 1.3640, keeping the short-term downtrend intact. Price started to consolidate in the mid-1.35s as the session wound down, with the pound unable to fully shake off the earlier bearishness. In summary, GBP/USD’s intraday pattern showcased a whipsaw from strength to weakness: an initial climb, a steep breakdown on negative news, and finally a stabilization via a double bottom. The overall tone remained corrective-bearish, given the pair’s alignment with a downward trendline and continued trading below the key moving average resistance. Nonetheless, the successful defense of support at 1.3530 and the subsequent bounce suggested that sellers might be temporarily exhausted, and that the pound found some footing as markets awaited further cues (such as upcoming UK GDP data and FOMC minutes later in the week). Candlestick analysis (e.g. the double bottom and bullish RSI divergence) supports the idea of at least a short-term base forming for GBP/USD, even if the larger picture pointed to more downside risk ahead.
Market Outlook
July 9, 2025 was a roller-coaster session for forex, with each of these major USD pairs exhibiting distinctive intraday swings influenced by both technical and fundamental drivers. Overall market tone was mixed. Early optimism around trade (the tariff deadline extension) and central bank surprises put markets in a risk-on mood initially – this helped commodity-linked currencies like the Kiwi and Aussie rally during the Asian session. Both NZD and AUD showed a positive correlation, each spiking higher on improved sentiment and local central bank developments, then both fading as the day progressed. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar’s behavior was choppy: it weakened temporarily as traders unwound safe-haven positions when immediate trade fears eased, but it regained strength when new uncertainties emerged. A mid-day resurgence in USD (amid a wave of risk-off selling in equities and renewed tariff concerns) saw all three pairs – NZD/USD, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD – dip in unison, highlighting how broad risk sentiment can override individual factors.
There were also clear divergences. The Antipodean currencies (NZD and AUD) largely moved in tandem, both benefiting from upbeat risk sentiment and then retracing, given their high beta to global economic news. Their intraday patterns (volatility spikes followed by range-bound consolidation) reflected a market cautiously optimistic but still prone to jitters. In contrast, the British Pound underperformed and showed idiosyncratic weakness. GBP/USD’s selloff was deeper and driven by UK-specific issues (fiscal and monetary policy outlook) on top of the general risk backdrop. This made the pound’s correlation with the other pairs a bit looser; while AUD and NZD were rebounding, GBP was still licking its wounds near lows.
Across the board, the U.S. Dollar’s role was central – it acted as both a barometer of risk (strengthening during panic and easing during calm) and the beneficiary of any safe-haven flows. By day’s end, the market sentiment could best be characterized as cautiously mixed. Traders oscillated between risk-on and risk-off as headlines hit: the tariff delay offered hope, but fresh tariff threats and looming event risks (like the FOMC minutes) kept a lid on exuberanceThis nuanced tone was evident in price correlations: commodity currencies gained when optimism rose and lost ground when fear returned, whereas safe havens like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen firmed up during the risk-off waves. The Pound’s struggles, on the other hand, were more about domestic narratives, though it too enjoyed a slight respite when the USD softened.
In conclusion, the session leaned neither conclusively risk-on nor risk-off, but rather saw swift mood shifts. Rapid intraday reversals – such as NZD/USD’s RBNZ whipsaw, AUD/USD’s failed breakout, and GBP/USD’s double-bottom rebound – defined the trading day. Such patterns underscore the importance of intraday technical levels and price action signals in a headline-driven market. Traders witnessed dramatic moves but also saw how key support/resistance zones held firm in the end. The net result was a Forex market in flux, with participants awaiting clarity. Going forward, the interplay between trade developments, central bank signals, and risk appetite is likely to continue driving volatile, sentiment-driven moves, as evidenced by this tumultuous day.