Thursday, 10 July 2025 was marked by volatile intraday action across major forex pairs. Rapid breakouts and abrupt reversals on the M5 charts of GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD kept traders on their toes. A common theme was the clash between emerging recoveries and wick-filled fakeouts, as prices probed key support and resistance zones. False signals were frequent – trapping traders before flipping direction – making it crucial to distinguish real momentum from short-lived whipsaws. Overall, the trading landscape saw the US dollar’s mid-week strength wane, commodity currencies (AUD, NZD) rebounding, and the pound fighting to stabilize, all with an insightful mix of technical patterns on display.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD M5 chart highlighting the mid-week bear trap and subsequent bull trap around key levels.
Setup: GBPUSD entered the day recovering from a mid-week selloff. Earlier in the week, the pair had broken below a 1.3560 support floor in a sharp drop, but that move proved to be a classic bear trap – price appeared to be in decline and lured in short-sellers before swiftly reversing higher, trapping the bears. This false breakdown formed a double-bottom base in the mid-1.35s. Coming into Thursday, Cable was rising off that base with an emerging higher low structure. Overhead, the 1.3620–1.3640 zone – defined by prior highs – stood out as immediate resistance. The stage was set with seller exhaustion evident near the lows and a potential breakout brewing if bulls could push through the descending trendline from earlier in the week.
Trigger: The catalyst for GBPUSD’s big move came around the early New York session on 9 July. An impulsive breakout candle sliced through interim resistance at ~1.3600, surging price above 1.3620. This sudden upside impulse was likely fueled by a burst of buy orders and short-covering once the week’s range top gave way. Notably, the breakout was explosive – a wide-range M5 bar that cleared the consolidation in one go. The velocity suggested stop orders were triggered, propelling Cable into the mid-1.36s. Importantly, this thrust also coincided with price reaching the downtrend’s upper boundary, which intensified the bullish breakout signal. For a moment, it looked like GBPUSD had launched a fresh uptrend off the double bottom.
Follow-through: The initial follow-through, however, was fleeting. That breakout candle left a tall wick as profit-taking and counter-orders hit almost immediately. The pair whipsawed violently – within minutes, GBPUSD retraced most of the breakout gains, turning what started as a momentum surge into a rapid reversal. The price action was two-sided: an upward impulse followed by a swift collapse, signaling a lack of true follow-through. After this wicked reversal, GBPUSD transitioned into a choppy grind. Volatility remained elevated; 5-minute candles had long tails as the market tried to find direction. Through the latter half of the session, the pair stabilized and ground its way back upward in a slower, stepwise climb. By late day and into early Asia on the 10th, GBPUSD was back near the highs, but the nature of the move shifted from explosive to gradual – suggesting buyers were cautious after the earlier fakeout.
Failed Moves: GBPUSD’s chart showcased failed moves in both directions. The plunge below 1.3560 on Wednesday was a false breakdown that quickly reversed (the bear trap noted in the setup). On the upside, the midday spike above 1.3620 proved to be a bull trap – a false signal that the downtrend had reversed upward, only for price to fall back into the range. This bull trap was evident from the long wick left above 1.3620, followed by a full-body bearish candle closing back under resistance. Traders who chased the breakout long were caught off-guard as GBPUSD snapped back below the breakout level, exemplifying how fakeouts can “hunt” breakout orders. Aside from that major trap, there were smaller intraday wick rejections – for instance, attempts to rally through 1.3615 in the afternoon met aggressive selling, and dips into the low-1.35s were shallow as buyers defended the earlier swing low. These patterns underscore how supply and demand imbalances caused abrupt reversals, punishing late entrants in either direction.
What to Watch Next: Going into the next session, GBPUSD traders should keep a close eye on the 1.3640 zone – essentially the high from the bull trap. That level marks the top of the recent range and a key resistance; a clear 5-minute close above 1.3640 that holds could turn the tables in favor of a continued up-move. In contrast, the 1.3560 support (the bear trap low) has turned into an important floor – any renewed selling that pushes the pair back under that level would be a warning of downside revival. Between those levels, expect further consolidation and chop. The recent traps suggest using caution on initial breaks. Look for confirming factors (like stronger volume or multi-candle follow-through) to validate any breakout. If bullish momentum resumes and 1.3640 is cleared, the next upside target is around 1.3700 (prior week’s highs), whereas on the downside a slip under 1.3560 could open a retest of 1.3500. All told, GBPUSD has shown its hand with clear traps – watch for either a validated breakout or a drift within the range as traders digest the wild swings.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD M5 chart showing an ascending triangle pattern and repeated tests of the 0.6560 resistance.
Setup: The Aussie dollar started the session with a constructive tone after weathering a mid-week dip. In the days prior, AUDUSD found support near 0.6500, bouncing off that psychological level multiple times. This carved out a range floor, while the upside was capped by a stiff resistance around 0.6560. Notably, an early morning news-driven spike on 8 July had wicked into 0.6556 before retreating, establishing that area as a line of sellers. By 9 July, the pair was forming higher lows – each pullback trough (around 0.6520–0.6530) sat above the last – compressing price into an ascending triangle against the flat 0.6560 ceiling. This technical structure pointed to building bullish pressure. Leading into Thursday, traders were watching for a telltale breakout: if price could finally pierce 0.6560 convincingly, it would signal the triangle resolving to the upside. Conversely, failure to break would keep AUDUSD range-bound with risk of a roll-over back toward 0.6500.
Trigger: The trigger event came as momentum from the Asian session carried into the European morning of July 10. After a quiet overnight consolidation just below 0.6550, buyers staged a breakout. The initial spark was a push through minor intraday resistance at ~0.6545, which drew in fresh bids. Once AUDUSD punched through the 0.6560 barrier – on a burst of buying volume – stops above the triangle’s highs were hit, propelling an impulsive rally. This breakout wasn’t a one-candle wonder; a series of bullish M5 candles printed as the pair drove to a new high around 0.6570. The nature of the trigger was more grinding than explosive compared to GBPUSD’s – reflecting perhaps less event-driven volatility and more of a steady accumulation of long positions. Still, the triangle breakout was the pivotal moment, confirming that bulls had overpowered the resistance level that had held for days.
Follow-through: The follow-through on AUDUSD’s breakout was relatively solid. Unlike the pound’s whipsaw, the Aussie managed to hold its gains above 0.6560 for an extended period. The move had good momentum but was not without hesitation – after the initial pop to ~0.6570, there was a brief pullback. However, that dip was shallow, finding support roughly at the broken 0.6560 level (turning old resistance into support). This successful retest spurred a second leg of buying. Price action turned into a grind higher, characterized by small bullish candles and only minor chop. Volatility was moderate: the pair advanced in a controlled manner rather than a straight sprint, hinting at orderly profit-taking alongside new buying. There were moments of whipsaw on very short-term moves – e.g. a quick 10-pip dip and recovery around mid-session – but overall AUDUSD maintained an upward bias through the session. By the end of the day, it was trading near session highs, reflecting decent follow-through. The key hallmark was that no swift rejection came after the breakout; bulls largely held the field, suggesting underlying strength in this move.
Failed Moves: While AUDUSD trended upward on the day, it wasn’t without attempted head-fakes. One notable failed move occurred late on 9 July: an intraday rally attempt pierced 0.6540 but then stalled out, sliding back into the consolidation range. That minor fakeout was essentially a premature breakout that lacked momentum. More prominently, earlier in the week the pair’s violent news spike to 0.6556 (on 8 July) turned into a wick trap – price shot up dozens of pips in minutes only to fall right back down, leaving a long wick and false breakout on the chart. That event likely cleared out short-term stops but didn’t result in a trend change, marking a failure for bulls at that time. On Thursday itself, failed moves were limited. Perhaps the only hint was a very brief dip under 0.6540 during a mid-session pullback, which might have worried late buyers, but support held and the dip quickly bounced. In summary, AUDUSD’s price action had fewer traps compared to GBPUSD – the bullish attempts largely succeeded – but traders needed to survive a couple of fakeouts prior to the real breakout. Those earlier failures served as shakeouts that ultimately reinforced the significance of the 0.6560 level when it finally gave way.
What to Watch Next: After closing the session strong, AUDUSD now faces the next hurdles and scenarios. On the upside, 0.6580 and 0.6600 are immediate levels to watch – 0.6600 being a round-number resistance and likely profit-taking zone if reached. If bullish momentum persists into the next session, a clean break above 0.6600 on the M5/M15 timeframe would signal an extension of the uptrend (with next resistance around 0.6650). However, given the multiple tests of 0.6560, traders should be cautious about a potential double-top or exhaustion if buying interest doesn’t follow through. A slip back below 0.6560 would be an ominous sign in the short term – especially if price quickly falls back into the old range. In that case, watch the 0.6530 area (recent higher low) and the 0.6500 support. A move under 0.6500 would invalidate the bullish breakout entirely and put bears back in control. In summary, AUDUSD has confirmed an ascending triangle breakout – focus on whether it can build on that breakout or if a lack of follow-through turns it into another fakeout. The price behavior around 0.6560 (hold vs. fail) and the momentum toward 0.6600+ will be telling for the next session’s direction.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD M5 chart illustrating range-bound trade with a false breakdown (“spring”) and subsequent rally toward range resistance.
Setup: NZDUSD spent much of the day range-bound, albeit with notable volatility within that range. Coming into 10 July, the pair had established a floor in the upper-0.59s: over the past sessions, support around 0.5980 had been repeatedly tested. In fact, NZDUSD briefly dipped below 0.5980 during early Thursday’s Asian session, making a marginal new low near 0.5975 – but this move turned into a spring (false breakdown) as the price snapped back above 0.5980 soon after. That action suggested bearish exhaustion and acted as a bear trap similar to GBPUSD’s (though on a smaller scale). On the topside, 0.6025–0.6030 emerged as a formidable resistance, coinciding with prior swing highs. This effectively set a 4–5 pip range of roughly 0.5980 to 0.6030 (about a 50 pip span) in play. The technical structure resembled a sideways consolidation band following a downtrend – NZDUSD was stabilizing after earlier losses, but had yet to break out upward like AUDUSD did. Traders eyed whether the pair would form a base pattern (e.g. double bottom) to launch an upside break, or if continued inability to get above 0.6030 would invite sellers back in.
Trigger: The Kiwi’s key trigger on 10 July was subtler than the other pairs – there wasn’t a single dramatic breakout candle, but rather a gradual shift in momentum after the failed breakdown. Once NZDUSD rebounded off ~0.5975, buying interest slowly increased. The first tell was a push back above the 0.6000 psychological level, which turned market sentiment cautiously bullish intraday. As the European session got underway, NZDUSD produced a series of higher lows and began pressuring the 0.6010/20 intraday resistance. The trigger can be viewed as a creeping breakout: eventually, in late European morning, the pair managed to punch through 0.6015 (a minor swing high) and sustain trade above it. This ignited a modest upside run. Unlike AUDUSD, NZDUSD did not have a well-defined chart pattern break – it was more about building strength after rejecting the lows. Arguably, the failed breakdown itself was the trigger that put shorts on notice and invited bulls to test the upside. Once the pair climbed above 0.6020, momentum picked up slightly as some stop-loss orders of short positions were triggered. The move lacked a big news catalyst and instead reflected a technical relief rally following days of pressure.
Follow-through: Follow-through in NZDUSD was choppy but positive. The immediate result of the trigger was an intraday uptrend on the M5 chart, but it was not a smooth one. The pair advanced from the 0.5990s to just shy of 0.6025 in a series of two-steps-forward, one-step-back waves. Volatility was evident – there were a couple of rapid whipsaws where green candles were quickly met by red ones. For example, a surge toward 0.6020 was momentarily knocked back to 0.6005 before the next push higher. This kind of back-and-forth price action indicates liquidity hunting on the smaller timeframe – larger players testing both sides. Despite the turbulence, NZDUSD maintained an upward drift. Each pullback was bought slightly higher than the last, signaling accumulation. By early US session, the pair hit 0.6025 (near the top of its range) and for the first time began spending time above 0.6020. However, unlike AUDUSD, NZDUSD did not blast cleanly through its range resistance; the follow-through stalled as it approached the 0.6030 ceiling. Buyers showed fatigue near the range high, and the rally flattened out with no significant extension beyond 0.6025. In summary, NZDUSD did follow through on its intraday turn with a moderate rally, but the move was more of a grind with frequent shake-outs than a decisive trend – consistent with a market that is trying to base but not yet in full breakout mode.
Failed Moves: The NZDUSD chart had its share of fakeouts on the day. The most striking failed move was the aforementioned dip below 0.5980 – a false breakdown that quickly reversed. This bear trap, often referred to as a “spring” in Wyckoff terms, flushed out weak longs and drew in aggressive shorts right before reversing higher, leaving a telltale long downside wick. On the flip side, NZDUSD also experienced struggles at resistance. There was an instance mid-session where price peeked above 0.6020 and momentarily looked to be breaking out, only to fall back into the range within a few candles. That bull trap wasn’t dramatic (only a handful of pips), but it reaffirmed that 0.6030 was still a valid resistance and that bullish attempts lacked follow-through at first. Essentially, Kiwi saw false signals on both ends of its range. Another subtle failed move: during the U.S. morning, a quick surge toward 0.6030 was met with a sharp wick rejection, as sellers defended the level and knocked price back down 10+ pips. Each of these failures kept NZDUSD contained, reinforcing the view that it was in a sideways holding pattern. Traders navigating the pair had to be nimble – fading moves at extremes worked until proven otherwise, given the lack of a clear breakout.
What to Watch Next: Going forward, NZDUSD finds itself at a technical inflection point. The 0.6030 resistance – essentially the range ceiling – is the key to watch on the upside. If bulls can muster a breakout above 0.6030 with conviction (especially if accompanied by a strong M5 close or a burst in volume), it would invalidate the short-term range and likely target the next levels around 0.6070 and 0.6100. In that scenario, the recent higher lows (around 0.6000) would provide a launching pad for a broader recovery. However, if 0.6030 continues to repel advances, NZDUSD may simply remain in its consolidation. On the downside, the 0.5980 support (and the fake-out low near 0.5975) is critical; a decisive break below 0.5975 would signal a downside resolution of the range, opening the door to a deeper decline (next support around 0.5950 or lower). Given the repeated traps seen, traders should be cautious of head-fakes. For the next session, watch for a confirmed range breakout (in either direction) before positioning aggressively. Until then, tactical range trading – buying dips toward support and selling rallies near resistance – may prevail. All eyes will be on whether NZDUSD can convert its recent base-building into a true upside breakout, or if it slips back into the prior downtrend.
Summary
In summary, all three pairs saw technical drama on the 5-minute charts. GBPUSD had the most turbulent ride – staging a sharp bullish breakout that turned into a rapid whipsaw, ultimately recovering into a range. AUDUSD showed relative strength, breaking out of an ascending pattern with sustained follow-through and fewer fakeouts. NZDUSD lagged slightly, remaining range-bound as it chipped away at resistance in a choppy grind. Despite different outcomes, a common thread was the prevalence of false breakouts (bull and bear traps) around key levels, reflecting a market environment of indecision and stop hunts. Traders of these pairs on 10 July 2025 had to navigate wicky price action and distinguish real impulses from traps. Going into the next session, each pair presents clear technical reference points – whether it’s a prior wick high, a range boundary, or a newly established support – that will guide trading decisions. The interplay of momentum versus fakeout seen across GBP, AUD, and NZD highlights the importance of patience and confirmation in intraday trading.