Global market sentiment remains dominated by political intrigue and shifting economic winds as we close out the week. The European Central Bank’s latest meeting offered no surprises, with policymakers standing pat on rates as expected amid eurozone inflation easing near 2%. Across the Atlantic, however, trade tensions continue to simmer: U.S. President Donald Trump inked a limited trade deal but simultaneously slapped sweeping new tariffs (15–50%) on 150 countries – a move that underscores the absence of any real de-escalation in the trade war. The White House’s hardball tactics aren’t limited to trade. In a dramatic twist, Trump even floated (then walked back) the idea of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising fears about the Federal Reserve’s independence. All these factors have put the U.S. dollar on the back foot, creating a backdrop of broad USD weakness. In this environment, major currency pairs are reacting to a potent mix of technical signals and news drivers. Below we break down the intraday technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD on Friday, 25 July 2025, including key levels, biases, and the macro forces at play.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is attempting to extend its recent uptrend as political uncertainty in the U.S. weighs on the dollar. After a relatively muted reaction to yesterday’s data releases (eurozone PMI figures barely moved the needle), the pair regained an upward bias. With the ECB’s decision to pause hikes fully in line with expectations, the euro’s direction is being driven more by dollar weakness and technical momentum than by fresh eurozone surprises.
Technical Breakdown
On the 5-minute chart, EUR/USD shows a pattern of higher lows, reflecting steady intraday demand. During the Asian session the pair consolidated in the mid-1.17s, holding above a key pivot area around 1.1700. This stability above the 50-period moving average has kept short-term momentum bullish. Volatility is moderate – the 5-day average range is about 75 pips – and price action has been orderly, with buyers gradually pushing toward resistance. Notably, technical indicators hint at only mild exhaustion: the RSI ticked down from overbought territory on minor pullbacks, but no sharp divergences are evident. Overall, the intraday structure suggests bulls are in control unless a break below support occurs.
- Support: 1.1700 (intraday pivot and former resistance turned support); 1.1658 (next major floor, coinciding with the 20-day MA trend support).
- Resistance: 1.1780 (immediate upside target from recent highs); 1.1830/1.1840 (critical resistance zone – monthly high area).
Short-Term Bias
EUR/USD’s overall momentum remains positive on the short-term charts. The pair continues to trade above its smooth 20-period moving average, and as long as it stays above that dynamic support, the path of least resistance is upward. Traders have been inclined to buy dips, especially with the fundamental backdrop pressuring the dollar. A clear push above the 1.1780 resistance could open the door to a quick rally toward the mid-1.18s. Conversely, a slip under 1.1700 would be a warning sign, possibly exposing 1.1650 or lower, but such a move would likely require a catalyst (e.g. an unexpected USD-positive news spark).
Market Outlook
The euro’s buoyancy is reinforced by the lack of hawkish surprises from the ECB and the persistence of U.S. issues. With the ECB on hold, rate differentials are steady, so the dollar’s trajectory is more about U.S. developments. So far, those developments favor euro strength: trade war uncertainties and Fed independence concerns are eroding confidence in the dollar. Even rumors of a potential U.S.–EU trade deal have failed to lift the greenback because tariffs remain in place and no true truce is in sight. Barring any major upbeat U.S. news, EUR/USD sentiment should stay tilted upward. Traders will keep an eye on upcoming U.S. inflation and growth data, but in the immediate term, the political cloud over the USD (and the steady eurozone outlook) supports the case for buying on dips.
GBP/USD
The British pound is similarly benefiting from the dollar’s travails, even as it took a breather in recent sessions. GBP/USD pulled back sharply yesterday, a move largely seen as profit-taking after the pair’s strong multi-week run. Importantly, this dip has done little damage to the pound’s bullish structure – in fact, it may have refreshed momentum by shaking out weak longs. U.K. economic news has been second fiddle to U.S. developments lately; even if British data has wobbled, the macro narrative driving GBP/USD is the potent mix of U.S. political drama and the entrenched uptrend for the pound.
Technical Breakdown
On intraday charts, GBP/USD’s retreat on Thursday found support near $1.347–1.348, right along a rising trendline that has guided the pair for weeks. Notably, this area also aligns with the 50-period EMA on the M5 chart, which the price remains above – a sign that the short-term bullish bias is intact. After the quick drop, momentum oscillators like RSI reached oversold levels, suggesting the sell-off was overdone. Indeed, by Friday morning the pair was rebounding, carving out a potential “higher low” as buyers stepped in around the aforementioned support. Market structure shows a series of higher highs and higher lows on longer timeframes (H4/D1), and this intraday dip looks more like a correction within that uptrend rather than a trend reversal. Traders can observe minor resistance levels being tested as the pound recovers intra-day, with the 1.3550 zone capping initial bounces.
- Support: 1.3475 (immediate support from the intraday swing low and bullish trendline); 1.3428 (next support, recent Murray technical level and prior breakout zone).
- Resistance: 1.3550 (near-term resistance, intraday high and 5-minute 200-MA vicinity); 1.3610 (upper resistance from weekly charts, around this week’s peak). (Above 1.3610, the next hurdle is ~1.3670, but that is unlikely to be tested unless a fresh wave of GBP buying emerges.)
Short-Term Bias
The brief dip notwithstanding, technical signals point to buyers regaining control. The pair remains in a bullish correctional wave on the short-term basis – essentially an uptrend with periodic pullbacks. So long as GBP/USD holds above the mid-1.34s support zone, the bias stays positive. The presence of positive momentum factors – such as trading above the 50-day EMA and a supportive trendline – adds confidence to the bull case. In the very near term, we could see GBP/USD grind back toward the mid-1.35s; a break above 1.3580 would signal the recent correction is over and potentially pave the way to re-test 1.3600+ levels. Traders should remain mindful of volatility, as intraday USD swings can still cause noise. If the pair were to slip below 1.3470, the bias would flip to neutral/bearish for the short term, but that scenario appears less likely unless driven by unexpected news.
Market Outlook
Fundamentally, the pound’s tailwinds remain in place. The Bank of England’s policy stance, much like the ECB’s, is out of the spotlight – incremental UK data (GDP, retail sales, etc.) might cause only fleeting moves in GBP/USD. Instead, the spotlight is on the dollar. Trump’s aggressive trade stance and open disregard for a “strong dollar” policy continue to favor GBP/USD upside. The UK’s own political scene (post-Brexit trade adjustments, etc.) has been relatively quiet, leaving little to impede the pound. On higher time frames, Cable has been in a 3-year uptrend with remarkably shallow corrections, reflecting strong structural support for GBP. That said, traders should watch for any headlines on U.S. fiscal or monetary policy – for instance, if the Fed shows signs of buckling under political pressure or conversely takes a surprisingly hawkish tone, USD volatility could jump. For now, absent any sign of a truce in the global trade war or a major shift in Fed/BoE messaging, the outlook favors further dollar weakness and hence a continuation of the GBP/USD rise.
USD/CAD
The USD/CAD pair finds itself under pressure as well, with the Canadian dollar (aka “loonie”) strengthening amid the broader anti-USD wave. Unlike the euro and pound – which are driven by USD moves – the loonie also enjoys support from commodity trends and a comparatively stable domestic backdrop. Earlier this week, USD/CAD attempted a rebound, but that rally has largely faltered. The pair is now testing the lower end of its recent range, suggesting that sellers remain in control. Key themes include steady oil prices and a lack of direct trade hostilities between the U.S. and Canada, both of which bolster CAD relative to USD.
Technical Breakdown
USD/CAD’s technical picture on the intraday 5-minute timeframe leans bearish. Yesterday’s bounce saw the pair recover from lows and test a minor bearish trendline, peaking around the 1.3650 resistance area. However, that bounce appears to have been a corrective move in a larger downtrend. The price remains below its 50-period M5 moving average and comfortably under the longer-term 50-day MA, indicating overarching downward momentum. Additionally, momentum indicators flashed warning signs for USD bulls: the RSI on short-term charts hit overbought territory on the bounce and then rolled over, showing negative overlap signals as buying momentum faded. In the European morning session, USD/CAD is slipping back from 1.3650 and eyeing support levels. The price action shows a series of lower highs this week – a classic downtrend signature. Unless new catalysts emerge, the pair may continue to “fade” off any intraday upticks.
- Support: 1.3600 (immediate intraday support, a psychological level and yesterday’s low target); 1.3550–1.3545 (next support zone, around this week’s low and a level highlighted by weekly forecasts).
- Resistance: 1.3650 (near-term resistance, trendline test point and intraday swing high); 1.3700 (upper bound of daily range, also roughly the 5-day moving average area). (Above 1.3700, stronger resistance looms at 1.3750 – a level that capped last week’s rally amid Powell-firing rumors – but for today such a move would be unexpected barring a major news shock.)
Short-Term Bias
Technically, the path for USD/CAD is tilted downward. The pair is trading in a bearish channel on the weekly chart and remains below key moving averages, which keeps selling pressure intact. Each attempt at a rally has been met with sellers at lower levels – evidence of a downtrend in force. Intraday, as long as the price stays below ~1.3650, the bias favors shorts, with an expectation of a grind down to test the 1.36 handle and potentially the mid-1.35s. The forecast for today calls for further decline if that resistance holds, targeting 1.3600 and possibly lower. It’s worth noting that short-term oscillators are not yet in oversold territory, so there is room for additional downside before any significant technical bounce is warranted. A break below 1.3540 would be a notable bearish development, opening up a path toward the low-1.34s. On the flip side, if USD/CAD manages to climb above 1.3670–1.3700, it would signal fading downside momentum and could neutralize the immediate bearish bias – but such a scenario currently appears low-probability.
Market Outlook
The Canadian dollar’s resilience can be attributed to both the absence of negative shocks and some positive fundamentals. Importantly, Canada has largely been spared from the latest U.S. tariff salvos – it was excluded from Trump’s broad tariff measures announced earlier in the year. This means the trade war noise hitting other currencies is a bit more muted for CAD. Moreover, Canada’s domestic economy has shown signs of stability: business sentiment improved in Q2 after a weak Q1, and consumer spending has held up reasonably well. The Bank of Canada, having cut rates earlier in 2025, is now in wait-and-see mode and is not expected to cut further this year given resilient growth and sticky inflation. In contrast, the Fed faces pressure to ease if political interference intensifies. This divergent outlook on central bank policy supports the loonie. Additionally, oil prices – a key driver for CAD – are trading around the mid-$60s per barrel, slightly up on the month. While not surging, these oil price levels are sufficient to underpin the Canadian dollar (historically, rising oil tends to strengthen CAD). All said, unless we witness a sharp rebound in the US dollar on some unexpected news (for example, a sudden resolution of trade disputes or strong U.S. data reversing Fed rate cut bets), USD/CAD is likely to remain pressured. Traders should monitor any headlines on U.S.–Canada trade talks (or lack thereof) and broader market risk sentiment. So far, the narrative of “sell the USD rallies” holds firm. Analysts even suggest the dollar’s downtrend could be a multi-year phase if current policies persist – a scenario that would keep the loonie in a favorable position.
Conclusion
In summary, the forex landscape on 25 July 2025 is characterized by a soft U.S. dollar and opportunistic strength in its major counterparts. Both the euro and pound are riding higher on the back of dollar-specific troubles – namely trade conflicts and political meddling – and their technical setups point to buy-on-dip strategies continuing to pay off in the short term. The Canadian dollar, while quieter in its move, is steadily asserting itself as well, leveraging stable fundamentals and commodity support to gain ground versus the greenback. Traders should remain vigilant: sudden news (be it a tweet from Washington or an economic data surprise) can always roil intraday volatility. However, barring such surprises, the prevalent biases – bullish EUR/USD, bullish GBP/USD, and bearish USD/CAD – are likely to persist into the weekend. Keep an eye on the key support and resistance zones mentioned above; they will be pivotal in gauging any shift in momentum. As always, maintain sound risk management, but don’t be afraid to ride the prevailing trends while they last. In these politically charged markets, fortune tends to favor those who stay informed and nimble.