Forex markets are ending the week on a dramatic note on Friday, November 14, 2025. The U.S. dollar is on the back foot across the board, extending a slide that began after a dovish shock in U.S. data sparked a wave of dollar selling. Major currency pairs are capitalizing on the greenback’s weakness: the British pound and euro are surging to multi-day highs against the dollar, while the Canadian dollar is gaining strongly, driving USD/CAD sharply lower. An improved global risk tone, evident in rising equity markets and firmer commodity prices, has further fueled the exodus from the safe-haven dollar. Traders are digesting these moves and recalibrating their outlooks as the week winds down, with interest rate expectations and economic indicators heavily influencing intraday volatility.
GBP/USD
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD has staged an impressive rebound, breaking out of its recent downtrend with a burst of bullish momentum. Earlier in the week the pair found support near the $1.3100 level – forming what appears to be a double-bottom base on the 5-minute chart – and then began carving out higher lows. This bullish structure culminated in a sharp rally during the last 24 hours, as GBP/USD vaulted above the mid-1.3100s resistance. In early Friday trading, the pair spiked to the upper-$1.3160s, marking its highest level in several days. The move easily cleared a notable intraday resistance around $1.3160 (the peak from Thursday’s European session), indicating that short-term traders covered short positions and flipped bias to the upside. Momentum indicators on the intraday chart suggest bullish energy remains strong, though GBP/USD is now near a potential resistance zone around $1.3180. On the downside, any pullback may find initial support at the broken resistance area of $1.3130–1.3150 and the $1.3100 figure beneath that. The technical tone is bullish in the near term, as the successful breakout points to a possible trend shift upward after weeks of range-bound to bearish price action.
Fundamental Analysis
The pound’s surge is being underpinned by a combination of broad dollar weakness and slightly improving sentiment around the UK currency. The catalyst for the dollar’s decline was a softer U.S. inflation reading released on Thursday, which caught markets off guard and led traders to scale back expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. With U.S. Treasury yields pulling back on the news, the dollar has lost some of its yield appeal, benefiting counterparts like the pound. At the same time, the British pound drew modest support from domestic factors. While the UK’s economic outlook remains lukewarm – characterized by stagnant growth and still-elevated inflation – there are glimmers of optimism that the Bank of England’s tightening cycle, having kept interest rates high, will gradually temper price pressures without severely damaging the economy. This narrative, combined with the dollar’s slide, has encouraged traders to unwind bearish bets on GBP. There are also whispers that UK policymakers’ recent comments sounding vigilant on inflation have helped anchor the pound, as markets infer that UK rates could stay elevated even as the Fed potentially pauses or eases. Overall, Friday’s jump in GBP/USD seems largely flow-driven by the dollar’s retreat, but it’s reinforced by the perception that the pound was oversold earlier. Heading into the weekend, investors will watch if GBP/USD can hold above the 1.3100 area – a sign that sterling’s strength may have some staying power – especially with important UK economic data and Bank of England speak due in the weeks ahead.
EUR/USD
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is roaring higher as well, with the pair’s bulls taking control after a period of consolidation. The 5-minute chart shows that euro-dollar was trading choppily in a range through much of Wednesday and early Thursday, bouncing between roughly the $1.1560 support area and the $1.1600 level. That changed dramatically late Thursday and into Friday, when strong upside momentum propelled EUR/USD through the $1.1600 barrier decisively. Once that psychological level gave way, a flurry of buy orders hit the market, and the pair surged up to $1.1630+, tagging its highest value in over a week. This upside breakout from the previous range is a bullish signal – it indicates that the sequence of lower highs has been broken. On the intraday chart, there was little resistance once $1.1600 was cleared, which is evident from the long blue candlesticks stacking up as stops were triggered and new buyers piled in. The euro’s climb appears to be a classic short-covering rally combined with fresh longs chasing the breakout. Should the rally extend, the next upside levels to watch might be around $1.1650 and $1.1700 (where the pair had peaked last month). In the event of a pullback, former resistance at $1.1600 now turns into support, followed by the $1.1570 zone. With the pair comfortably above its short-term moving averages (on higher timeframes) and intraday trendlines pointing up, the technical outlook for EUR/USD is bullish heading into the close of the week.
Fundamental Analysis
The euro’s strength on Friday is tied closely to the same overarching theme: a weakening U.S. dollar in the face of shifting interest rate expectations. Thursday’s U.S. CPI report showed inflation cooler than expected, which has led market participants to speculate that the Federal Reserve will hold off on any additional rate hikes – and might even consider cutting rates sooner in 2026 if disinflation persists. This development has caused U.S. short-term yields to fall, eroding one of the dollar’s key supports against the euro. In contrast, the European Central Bank is largely expected to maintain its current policy stance; after a long series of hikes, the ECB has paused, but officials have signaled they intend to keep rates high for as long as needed to tame inflation in the eurozone. With the Fed potentially stepping back earlier than the ECB, the interest rate differential that has favored the dollar is beginning to narrow. This dynamic is giving the euro a fundamental tailwind. Additionally, broader risk appetite is aiding EUR/USD – when investors are confident, they often rotate out of safe havens like the dollar into riskier assets, which includes currencies like the euro. There were no major Eurozone data releases on Friday, so traders took their cues from the dollar side and overall market sentiment. It’s worth noting that recent data from Europe (for instance, industrial production and business sentiment) have shown tentative improvements, helping alleviate recession fears. That subtle positive backdrop makes traders more comfortable in bidding the euro higher now that the heavy weight of an ever-rising dollar has lifted. Going forward, euro-watchers will pay close attention to any guidance from ECB officials about future policy and to upcoming U.S. economic numbers – those will determine if EUR/USD’s newfound buoyancy has room to run beyond the current relief rally.
USD/CAD
Technical Analysis
The US dollar’s slide is clearly visible in USD/CAD, where the pair has plunged below a key support level amid a surge in Canadian dollar strength. Earlier in the week, USD/CAD was range-bound, trading roughly between C$1.3980 and C$1.4050 in choppy fashion. In fact, the chart hints at a topping pattern: the pair attempted to push above C$1.4050 on Thursday but failed, marking a lower high after a peak on Wednesday. This gradual loss of upward momentum set the stage for a bearish turn. Once selling pressure picked up late Thursday, USD/CAD sliced through the crucial C$1.4000 handle, which had been providing support. This breakdown triggered an acceleration to the downside. On Friday, USD/CAD extended its fall to around C$1.3980 and below, hitting its lowest levels of the week. The swift drop confirms that bears are now in control in the short term. Technically, the path of least resistance appears downward: with lower highs and lower lows forming on the intraday chart, the pair is in a near-term downtrend. The breach of 1.4000 means that level now becomes initial resistance on any bounce, followed by the area around 1.4050. On the downside, traders are eyeing support at roughly C$1.3950 and the mid-1.39s – levels unseen since late October – as potential targets if the sell-off continues. The 5-minute candlesticks show strong red bodies indicative of heavy selling momentum, so caution is warranted if attempting to call a bottom. Until we see signs of basing or a reversal pattern, the technical bias for USD/CAD remains bearish.
Fundamental Analysis
From a fundamental perspective, the Canadian dollar’s strength – and by extension USD/CAD’s weakness – is being driven by both external and domestic factors. Most prominently, the broad collapse of the U.S. dollar after the benign U.S. inflation report has lifted all major currencies, and the loonie is no exception. A weaker USD means USD/CAD requires fewer Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar, hence the pair’s drop. However, the CAD is also finding independent support from rising commodity prices. Crude oil, a key Canadian export, has been trading firmer this week (partly on hopes that a global economic soft landing will sustain demand). Oil prices held near multi-week highs going into Friday, which bolsters the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. In addition, the Bank of Canada’s stance continues to lend the loonie a supportive yield backdrop. The BoC has kept interest rates at high levels and recently reiterated its commitment to return inflation to target, signaling it’s not rushing to cut rates. This relatively hawkish tone means Canadian bond yields remain attractive; when coupled with the Fed’s potential dovish shift, investors see relatively more appeal in holding CAD. There were no major Canadian economic releases on the docket today, so market participants focused on the global narrative. Risk sentiment remained positive overall – another factor that tends to favor the growth-sensitive CAD over the safe-haven USD. All in all, Friday’s drop in USD/CAD reflects a convergence of a soft USD and a firm CAD. Looking ahead, traders will be monitoring upcoming Canadian inflation and retail sales data later in the month, as well as keeping an eye on OPEC’s moves (given oil’s influence). Those factors, alongside the trajectory of U.S. dollar sentiment, will shape whether USD/CAD continues trending lower or finds a floor.
Market Outlook
Friday’s forex session underscored a clear theme: dollar weakness and risk-on sentiment. The U.S. dollar’s rout, triggered by cooling inflation and shifting rate expectations, allowed rival currencies to shine to end the week. The British pound and euro both broke out of recent ranges to push higher, and the Canadian dollar flexed its muscles as one of the strongest performers among the majors. This collective move suggests that investors are growing more confident in a scenario where global central banks are done tightening – a scenario that tends to favor non-dollar currencies especially if economic conditions remain stable.
Heading into the near term, the big question is whether these currency moves represent the start of a sustained trend or a short-term adjustment. The dollar’s steep two-day drop could invite some profit-taking or consolidation early next week, particularly if any Federal Reserve officials push back on the market’s dovish interpretation. Nevertheless, if upcoming U.S. data continues to surprise to the downside (for example, softer consumer spending or a cooling jobs market), it would reinforce the case for the Fed to stay on hold, likely keeping the dollar on the defensive. For the pound and euro, their ability to hold newfound ground will depend partly on their own domestic outlooks – any signs of economic resilience or slightly higher inflation in the UK or Eurozone could give these currencies an extra fundamental boost against the dollar. The Canadian dollar, for its part, will trade heavily influenced by risk appetite and commodity trends; a continued rally in oil or upbeat global growth vibes would further support the loonie.
In summary, this Friday’s market action has tilted short-term forex sentiment toward dollar bearishness, with bullish undercurrents for GBP, EUR, and CAD. Traders will close out the week with a watchful eye on news over the weekend and upcoming economic releases. As always in FX, sentiment can shift quickly – but as of now, the momentum favors those currencies riding the wave of a softer USD. The market outlook for early next week is cautiously optimistic for dollar bears: expect participants to test if this week’s breakout moves can extend, albeit at a potentially slower pace. Volatility may remain elevated as the FX market finds a new equilibrium after the week’s dramatic shifts. Ultimately, confirmation from additional data and central bank communications will be key to determining if the dollar’s downfall is a temporary blip or the start of a larger trend into the end of 2025. For now, forex traders are enjoying a climactic finish to the week – one that sets the stage for an intriguing battle between the dollar and its rivals in the days ahead.