As we head into Thursday, March 6, 2025, global markets are positioned for a session that could see heightened volatility, driven by a series of significant economic data releases. The U.S. dollar remains the focal point as traders react to recent data and prepare for upcoming reports, particularly the ECB Interest Rate Decision and U.S. labor market data.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair saw a strong rally, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and anticipation surrounding the ECB’s monetary policy stance. The pair gained momentum following the release of mixed Eurozone PMI data and ECB comments, with traders closely monitoring any signals regarding future rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair continued its bullish trajectory, buoyed by better-than-expected U.K. services PMI data and broad-based dollar weakness. The pair’s gains were further supported by a rebound in risk appetite, as traders reassessed the Bank of England’s rate path in light of recent economic indicators.
The AUD/USD pair surged higher, benefiting from improved risk sentiment and a softer U.S. dollar. The Australian dollar found additional support from domestic data releases, including stronger-than-expected trade balance figures, suggesting resilience in Australia’s external sector.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair maintained a bullish tone, closing near the 1.0790 level after extending its rally throughout the session. The pair’s upward movement was bolstered by a weaker dollar and speculation over ECB policy decisions. On the technical front, the MACD indicator is in positive territory, indicating strong upside momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential resistance ahead. The 14-day RSI remains elevated, reflecting sustained bullish pressure.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.0780-1.0800 with targets at 1.0830-1.0850 and 1.0880-1.0900, with a stop loss below 1.0740.
- Alternatively, consider short positions below 1.0740 with targets of 1.0700-1.0680, with stops above 1.0780.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair continued its strong uptrend, closing around the 1.2890 level. The pair benefited from positive U.K. PMI data and a broad pullback in the U.S. dollar. The MACD indicator remains bullish, supporting further upside potential. The Stochastic Oscillator is nearing overbought levels, suggesting caution for traders looking to enter fresh long positions. The 14-day RSI confirms the pair’s bullish momentum but indicates that the rally may be due for a temporary pullback.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.2880-1.2900 with targets at 1.2930-1.2960 and 1.3000-1.3030, with a stop loss below 1.2840.
- Alternatively, consider selling below 1.2840 with targets at 1.2800-1.2770, with stops above 1.2880.
AUD/USD
Technicals in Focus
The AUD/USD pair saw a sharp rally, closing around the 0.6340 level after a strong intraday push. The Australian dollar gained traction amid renewed risk appetite and encouraging trade balance data. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, suggesting continued strength in the pair. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, hinting at a possible pullback. The 14-day RSI remains in a bullish range, supporting the ongoing uptrend.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 0.6330-0.6350 with targets at 0.6380-0.6400 and 0.6430-0.6450, with a stop loss below 0.6300.
- Alternatively, consider selling below 0.6300 with targets at 0.6270-0.6240, with stops above 0.6330.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the ECB Interest Rate Decision will be a key event for euro traders, with market participants closely watching for any hints of future policy shifts. In the U.S., initial jobless claims and trade balance data will provide further insights into the economic outlook and the dollar’s trajectory. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar’s performance will be influenced by risk sentiment and developments in global trade.
Overall, the market is expected to remain sensitive to economic data and central bank communications, with potential for increased volatility as traders react to new information.