As we head into Tuesday, November 19, 2024, global markets are bracing for another session of significant volatility, driven by key economic data releases and central bank updates. The U.S. dollar remains under scrutiny as traders react to housing market data and prepare for additional inflationary insights. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policymakers and retail sales data from the UK are expected to shape sentiment across the major currency pairs.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair experienced notable volatility, closing near the 1.0567 level after a session marked by both upward and downward swings. Movements were driven by mixed U.S. housing data and cautious remarks from ECB officials. Technically, the MACD indicator is hovering near the zero line, indicating muted momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is near overbought territory, suggesting potential for a short-term correction. The 14-day RSI is neutral, reflecting indecision among traders.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.0560-1.0530 with targets at 1.0500-1.0470, with a stop loss above 1.0590.
- Alternatively, consider long positions above 1.0590 with targets of 1.0620-1.0650, with stops below 1.0560.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair consolidated near 1.2626, trading within a tight range after recent declines. UK retail sales data and the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey’s upcoming remarks are expected to play a pivotal role in determining the pair’s next direction. The MACD suggests weakening bearish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is moving out of oversold territory, hinting at a possible bounce. The 14-day RSI is neutral, indicating a lack of clear directional bias.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.2620-1.2600 with targets at 1.2650-1.2680, with a stop loss below 1.2580.
- Alternatively, consider selling below 1.2580 with targets of 1.2550-1.2520, with stops above 1.2620.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
The USD/JPY pair retraced to close near 154.86 following a session of significant volatility. The movements were influenced by a slight recovery in U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations, as well as Japan’s trade balance figures. The MACD has crossed above the zero line, signaling renewed bullish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, suggesting potential downside pressure. The 14-day RSI remains neutral.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 154.80-155.10 with targets at 155.50-155.80, with a stop loss below 154.50.
- Alternatively, consider selling below 154.50 with targets of 154.00-153.70, with stops above 154.80.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, traders will focus on the following:
- U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts: Insights into the health of the U.S. housing market could drive sentiment around the U.S. dollar.
- UK Retail Sales Data: These figures will provide clarity on consumer demand ahead of key BoE commentary.
- ECB Speakers and Core CPI Data: Continued rhetoric from ECB officials and inflation data will shape expectations for monetary policy in the Eurozone.
Overall, with a dense economic calendar, the market is expected to remain sensitive to data surprises and central bank commentary, creating opportunities for heightened volatility across the forex market.