As we close out the trading week on Friday, April 18, global forex markets are easing into a subdued session amid widespread market holidays in the U.S., U.K., Canada, and several other major economies due to Good Friday observance. The reduced liquidity hasn’t dulled the impact of a busy economic calendar earlier in the week, which brought a wave of inflation figures, central bank rate decisions, and employment data that reshaped short-term price action in key currency pairs.
The U.S. dollar remained reactive to a string of weaker-than-expected macro indicators, including a drop in retail sales growth and poor manufacturing sentiment, which slightly undermined Fed rate hike expectations. However, hawkish undertones from Fed officials kept a firm base under the greenback. Meanwhile, market attention now shifts to speculative positioning and the broader risk sentiment leading into next week.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
EUR/USD struggled for direction, trading in a whipsaw pattern across the past two days before settling near the 1.1354 mark. The pair has shown resistance just below 1.1400 and support forming above 1.1320. Price action has been defined by intraday spikes and sharp pullbacks, suggesting uncertainty as traders digest recent ECB signals and U.S. data.
The MACD is flatlining near the zero level, while the RSI is drifting in neutral territory, reflecting the pair’s indecision. Short-term momentum indicators suggest consolidation, with no clear directional bias unless fresh catalysts emerge.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 1.1360 with targets at 1.1390 and 1.1415, stop loss at 1.1325.
Alternatively, sell below 1.1320 targeting 1.1290 and 1.1260, stop above 1.1355.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
GBP/USD saw a midweek recovery from 1.3210 after posting a prolonged decline, bouncing back toward the 1.3258 zone. The rebound was fueled by better-than-expected U.K. employment data and shifting risk appetite. However, the pair failed to break cleanly above 1.3280 resistance.
Technically, the MACD has turned upward but remains shallow, while RSI is approaching 55, hinting at mild bullish strength. Price structure suggests a fragile uptrend, but a clean break above 1.3280 is needed to confirm further upside.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 1.3260 with targets at 1.3285 and 1.3310, stop loss at 1.3230.
Alternatively, sell below 1.3230 with targets at 1.3200 and 1.3175, stop above 1.3265.
USD/CAD
Technicals in Focus
USD/CAD remained under pressure, declining to 1.3836 after failing to sustain above the 1.3900 threshold. A rise in crude oil prices and firm Canadian CPI figures contributed to the loonie’s strength. The pair posted a clear downward channel throughout the latter half of the week.
On the technical side, the MACD continues its bearish divergence, while RSI dipped below 45, confirming bearish momentum. The pair is likely to extend its decline unless it reclaims the 1.3865-1.3885 zone.
Trading Strategy: Sell Bias
Sell below 1.3840 targeting 1.3810 and 1.3780, stop above 1.3875.
Alternatively, buy only on a bounce above 1.3885 with targets at 1.3910 and 1.3930.
Market Outlook
With most global financial centers closed today, market volatility is expected to be subdued. However, traders are already bracing for next week’s slate of high-impact data, including U.S. PMIs and the first glimpse of Q1 GDP estimates in several major economies. Hawkish Fed rhetoric and weak U.S. manufacturing sentiment have created a tug-of-war in dollar positioning, while the euro and pound will take cues from the ECB’s evolving stance and U.K. inflation metrics.
Overall, thin liquidity may limit price swings in the near term, but positioning ahead of next week could still drive directional setups, particularly in pairs with rising momentum divergence.