As we head into Thursday, April 10, 2025, global markets are digesting a wave of mid-week economic releases and central bank commentary, setting the tone for what could be another volatile trading session. The U.S. dollar remains the centerpiece of market focus following the release of the latest Core CPI and PPI figures, with investor sentiment further shaped by the FOMC meeting minutes and ongoing geopolitical concerns.
In currency markets, the EUR/USD pair traded with upward momentum for most of Wednesday but later gave back gains amid U.S. dollar strength following solid CPI and Jobless Claims data. The euro struggled to maintain higher ground despite a rebound in Business Sentiment across the Eurozone. GBP/USD saw increased volatility, swinging lower after strong U.S. inflation data contrasted with subdued UK fundamentals. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair posted a recovery from session lows, aided by a better-than-expected Business NZ PMI and softer USD late in the day.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair spiked above the 1.1060 level early in the session but reversed sharply, closing near 1.1018. Despite a strong run during the Asian and early European sessions, the pair was dragged lower as U.S. Core CPI (MoM) came in at 0.3% and CPI (YoY) printed at 2.5%, slightly below forecast but still impactful. From a technical standpoint, price action broke below the intraday support at 1.1030, with signs of bearish pressure emerging late in the session. The MACD appears to be flattening, suggesting a pause in bullish momentum, while the RSI hovers near neutral.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
Sell below 1.1015–1.0990 with targets at 1.0950–1.0920 and stops above 1.1045. Alternatively, consider long positions only above 1.1060, targeting 1.1090–1.1120 with stops below 1.1015.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
GBP/USD experienced sharp reversals throughout the session. After reaching highs near 1.2850 in early trade, the pair sank to close near the 1.2755 level. The decline followed mixed UK data earlier this week and stronger U.S. Core CPI and Jobless Claims numbers. Technically, the pair is now retesting the 1.2750 zone, a key support area. The MACD is pointing downward, and the RSI has dropped into mildly bearish territory, indicating increasing downside pressure.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
Sell below 1.2760–1.2730 with targets at 1.2700–1.2670 and stops above 1.2795. Alternatively, long positions may be considered above 1.2820 targeting 1.2850–1.2875 with stops below 1.2780.
NZD/USD
Technicals in Focus
NZD/USD showed strong intraday recovery, rebounding from lows around 0.5520 to finish near 0.5569. The pair’s performance was helped by a stable Business NZ PMI print (53.9) and some late-session U.S. dollar softness. The MACD shows a bullish crossover on lower timeframes, and the RSI is beginning to tilt upward, reflecting improving short-term momentum. However, upside may be capped as traders await fresh catalysts.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 0.5565–0.5550 with targets at 0.5600–0.5630 and stops below 0.5520. Alternatively, sell below 0.5520 with downside targets at 0.5485–0.5460 and stops above 0.5550.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching Thursday’s release of the BOE Credit Conditions Survey, which could influence GBP sentiment ahead of next week’s key UK employment data. The U.S. dollar is expected to remain active as traders digest the latest Fed Minutes, which revealed cautious optimism but continued inflation vigilance.
Crude oil traders will also remain alert following the latest EIA data showing a sharp inventory build of 2.553M barrels, exceeding forecasts and signaling possible short-term supply-demand imbalances. Meanwhile, the bond market is reflecting rising yields, with the 10-Year Note Auction closing at 4.435%, further supporting USD strength.
Overall, the tone in global FX markets remains one of cautious positioning as investors weigh central bank outlooks, inflation dynamics, and risk sentiment amid tighter financial conditions.