As we head into Tuesday, February 11, 2025, global markets are poised for potential volatility, influenced by key economic data releases and central bank communications. The U.S. dollar (USD) remains a major focus after recent labor market data, alongside anticipation for upcoming U.S. retail sales and inflation figures. In Europe, traders are closely monitoring industrial production data and GDP releases, while the British pound (GBP) continues to react to U.K. GDP and trade balance figures.
In the forex markets, the EUR/USD pair declined sharply, driven by weaker Eurozone fundamentals and U.S. economic strength. GBP/USD saw heightened volatility, reacting to mixed U.K. economic data and uncertainty over Bank of England (BoE) policy. Meanwhile, AUD/USD rebounded strongly after an initial sell-off, reflecting risk sentiment and movements in commodities.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair experienced a sharp decline, dropping below 1.0320, before stabilizing around 1.0312. This move was triggered by disappointing Eurozone industrial production data (-0.6% MoM) and concerns over the region’s economic outlook. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained firm, supported by higher-than-expected jobless claims and stable core PPI.
- MACD Indicator: The MACD remains below the zero line, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.
- Stochastic Oscillator: In neutral territory, indicating a lack of clear direction.
- 14-day RSI: Remains weak, suggesting further downside potential.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.0320 with targets at 1.0285 – 1.0260, and a stop loss above 1.0350.
- Buy above 1.0350 with targets at 1.0380 – 1.0400, and stops below 1.0310.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair experienced significant volatility, falling sharply to 1.2374 before recovering. The move was largely influenced by the BoE’s GDP tracker report (0.0%) and the U.K. trade balance, which came in worse than expected. Sterling also faced pressure as markets speculated on potential BoE rate cuts later in the year.
- MACD Indicator: Shows weakening momentum but remains in a slight recovery phase.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Approaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce.
- 14-day RSI: Neutral, showing no strong trend bias.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.2380 with targets at 1.2350 – 1.2320, and a stop loss above 1.2410.
- Buy above 1.2410 with targets at 1.2450 – 1.2480, with stops below 1.2370.
AUD/USD
Technicals in Focus
The AUD/USD pair saw a sharp sell-off followed by a strong rebound, closing near 0.6278. The Australian dollar initially weakened due to risk-off sentiment and U.S. dollar strength but later regained ground as commodity-linked currencies found support. Australian business confidence data also provided some relief, preventing further downside pressure.
- MACD Indicator: Turning positive, indicating a potential short-term recovery.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Moving higher from oversold territory, supporting a bullish outlook.
- 14-day RSI: Neutral, reflecting a consolidation phase.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 0.6280 with targets at 0.6310 – 0.6340, and a stop loss below 0.6250.
- Sell below 0.6250 with targets at 0.6220 – 0.6190, with stops above 0.6280.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, U.S. retail sales and core inflation data will be key drivers of USD strength. The Euro remains under pressure as markets digest weak economic data, while the British pound faces further uncertainty ahead of BoE policy updates. The Australian dollar’s performance will depend on risk sentiment and developments in commodity markets.
Overall, volatility is expected to remain high, with traders closely watching central bank comments and upcoming macroeconomic releases for further market direction.