As we head into Thursday, March 13, 2025, global forex markets are bracing for heightened volatility amid key economic data releases and central bank developments. The U.S. dollar remains a focal point as traders react to inflation figures and bond auction results. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to weaken on expectations of dovish policy from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), while the Canadian dollar faces pressure from a lower-than-expected Bank of Canada rate decision.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
The USD/JPY pair experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a peak near 149.16 before reversing to trade around 148.22. The pair’s movements were driven by a mix of weaker Japanese economic data and shifting U.S. inflation expectations. On the technical side, the MACD indicator shows a potential bearish crossover, suggesting a possible correction. The Stochastic Oscillator remains in neutral territory, while the RSI is slightly above 50, indicating mild bullish momentum.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 148.20-148.00 with targets at 148.80-149.20 and 149.50, with a stop loss below 147.80.
- Alternatively, sell below 147.80 with targets at 147.30-146.80, with stops above 148.20.
USD/CAD
Technicals in Focus
The USD/CAD pair saw sharp volatility following the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain rates at 2.75%, below the previous 3.00%. The pair initially surged to 1.4518 but later retreated to 1.4385 amid a pullback in crude oil prices. The MACD indicates bearish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, hinting at a possible rebound. RSI remains below 50, suggesting continued downside pressure.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.4400-1.4380 with targets at 1.4340-1.4300, with a stop loss above 1.4440.
- Alternatively, buy above 1.4440 with targets at 1.4480-1.4510, with stops below 1.4400.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair displayed strong bullish momentum, climbing to 1.2975 after bouncing from a low near 1.2911. The move was driven by a weaker dollar and improved U.K. economic data, despite mixed GDP figures. The MACD remains in positive territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a potential overbought scenario. RSI is above 60, indicating bullish momentum.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.2960-1.2940 with targets at 1.3000-1.3030, with a stop loss below 1.2920.
- Alternatively, sell below 1.2920 with targets at 1.2890-1.2860, with stops above 1.2960.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, traders will be monitoring key U.S. economic data, including jobless claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI), which could provide further direction for the U.S. dollar. The Japanese yen remains under pressure amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-loose policy stance, while the Canadian dollar could see further moves depending on crude oil price fluctuations.
Overall, the market remains highly sensitive to economic data and central bank rhetoric, with potential for increased volatility as traders react to the latest developments.