As we head into Monday, March 31, 2025, global forex markets open the week amid lower trading volume due to the ongoing Eid holiday celebrations across parts of Asia and the Middle East. While this is expected to reduce short-term volatility, a busy economic calendar lies ahead, including major U.S. labor market data, Fed Chair Powell’s speech, and Canadian employment numbers. These releases could inject fresh momentum later in the week.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair surged on Friday after softer-than-expected U.S. trade data and ISM figures. USD/CAD reversed earlier losses as Canadian economic figures disappointed, while AUD/USD remained under pressure, weighed by weak commodity sentiment and cautious RBA tones. Traders will be watching closely as we approach Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair saw a sharp rebound, breaking above 1.0830 after consolidating below 1.0780 through most of Friday’s session. This move came after the U.S. reported weaker-than-expected trade and PMI figures, helping the euro recover. Price action shows bullish momentum following a clean breakout, although some profit-taking capped gains near the 1.0840 zone.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 1.0810–1.0830 with targets at 1.0860–1.0890 and 1.0920–1.0940. Stop loss below 1.0780.
Alternatively, consider selling below 1.0780 for a retracement toward 1.0750–1.0720, with stop above 1.0810.
USD/CAD
Technicals in Focus
The USD/CAD pair rebounded aggressively off 1.4260 support and surged to 1.4319, responding to weak Canadian trade balance figures and renewed strength in the U.S. dollar. Volatility increased during late Friday trading, reflecting sensitivity to both oil price movements and shifting rate expectations ahead of Canadian labor data.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 1.4300–1.4315 with targets at 1.4350–1.4380 and 1.4420–1.4450. Stop loss under 1.4270.
Alternatively, short below 1.4270 with targets at 1.4230–1.4200, stop above 1.4310.
AUD/USD
Technicals in Focus
AUD/USD continued its slide, closing the week near 0.6284 after failing to hold above the 0.6300 handle. The pair was dragged lower by broad risk-off sentiment and underwhelming Chinese demand expectations. Despite a brief intraday spike, sellers quickly regained control. Market participants await the RBA’s rate decision on Monday night (GMT) for directional cues.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
Sell below 0.6300–0.6310 with downside targets at 0.6270–0.6240 and 0.6210–0.6180. Stop above 0.6330.
Alternatively, a break above 0.6330 could lead to a recovery toward 0.6360–0.6380.
Market Outlook
As we head into the final days of Q1, markets will remain sensitive to U.S. employment data, including the ADP Nonfarm Employment, Initial Jobless Claims, and Friday’s NFP and Unemployment Rate report. A weaker set of figures could further pressure the dollar, especially against the euro and yen.
The Eid holiday across Islamic nations may reduce overall liquidity early in the week, possibly muting reactions to Monday’s figures like the Chicago PMI. The RBA’s interest rate decision, due late Monday, will likely be a key catalyst for AUD pairs.
Looking ahead, expect tighter ranges and brief spikes as traders position ahead of Friday’s heavy slate of U.S. and Canadian labor data. Stay cautious and manage risk appropriately during this low-volume but high-impact week.