As we head into Thursday, February 27, 2025, global markets are preparing for heightened volatility amid key economic data releases. The U.S. dollar remains at the center of attention as traders react to U.S. GDP data and PCE price index figures, both of which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The Eurozone monetary policy meeting minutes are also in focus, providing insights into the ECB’s stance on inflation and economic growth.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair fluctuated as traders digested mixed economic data from both the Eurozone and the US. Meanwhile, USD/CAD surged, supported by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker oil prices, while the AUD/USD pair declined, reflecting risk-off sentiment and falling commodity prices.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair saw sharp fluctuations, trading near 1.0511 after an initial dip. The pair was impacted by weaker U.S. durable goods orders and the Eurozone monetary policy meeting minutes, which provided mixed signals. On the technical side, the MACD indicator remains close to the zero line, signaling indecision. The Stochastic Oscillator is attempting to exit oversold territory, while the 14-day RSI remains neutral, indicating a consolidation phase.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.0510-1.0480, with targets at 1.0450-1.0420 and 1.0400, with a stop loss above 1.0540.
- Alternatively, buy above 1.0540, targeting 1.0570-1.0600, with stops below 1.0510.
USD/CAD
Technicals in Focus
The USD/CAD pair surged to 1.4354, reflecting a stronger U.S. dollar following higher-than-expected U.S. GDP figures. The move was further supported by weaker Canadian GDP data and declining oil prices. The MACD indicator remains in bullish territory, confirming strong upward momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought conditions. The 14-day RSI indicates continued strength but signals a potential correction.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.4350, with targets at 1.4380-1.4410 and 1.4450, with a stop loss below 1.4310.
- Alternatively, sell below 1.4310, targeting 1.4280-1.4250, with stops above 1.4350.
AUD/USD
Technicals in Focus
The AUD/USD pair dropped to 0.6322, reflecting risk-off sentiment and lower commodity prices. The decline followed disappointing private capital expenditure data from Australia, combined with a stronger U.S. dollar. The MACD indicator is showing bearish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator remains in oversold territory. The 14-day RSI indicates that the pair may continue its downward trend but could see a short-term bounce.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 0.6320, with targets at 0.6290-0.6260 and 0.6240, with a stop loss above 0.6350.
- Alternatively, buy above 0.6350, targeting 0.6380-0.6410, with stops below 0.6320.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and GDP Price Index data will be closely watched as they provide further insights into the strength of the U.S. economy. Traders will also pay attention to the ECB monetary policy meeting account, which may influence the euro’s trajectory.
For the USD/CAD pair, the Canadian current account balance and oil price movements will remain key drivers. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar will likely be influenced by global risk sentiment and commodity price fluctuations.
With U.S. GDP growth data now in focus, volatility is expected across major currency pairs as traders adjust their positions ahead of the next Federal Reserve decision.