As we head into Thursday, November 21, 2024, global markets are poised for heightened volatility driven by pivotal economic data and central bank updates. Traders remain focused on key data releases from the U.S., UK, and Eurozone as these events shape the near-term outlook for major currency pairs. Attention is particularly on the U.S. labor market data, UK retail sales, and Eurozone PMI figures, which are expected to influence trading sentiment.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair traded in a volatile manner, falling to 1.0533 amid renewed strength in the U.S. dollar following robust housing data and cautious sentiment over Eurozone economic growth. The pair remains under pressure ahead of key Eurozone PMI data. Technically, the MACD indicator is showing bearish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator has entered oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term rebound. The 14-day RSI remains subdued, reflecting the broader downtrend.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.0530-1.0510 with targets at 1.0490-1.0460 and 1.0430-1.0400, with a stop loss above 1.0560.
- Alternatively, consider buying above 1.0560 with targets at 1.0590-1.0620, with stops below 1.0520.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
The USD/JPY pair climbed to a session high of 155.22 before retracing slightly, supported by positive U.S. economic sentiment and rising Treasury yields. However, the yen gained modest support from better-than-expected Japanese CPI data, limiting further upside. On the technical front, the MACD is bullish, reflecting upward momentum, but the Stochastic Oscillator signals overbought conditions. The 14-day RSI suggests the pair may consolidate in the near term.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 155.20-155.00 with targets at 155.50-155.80 and 156.00-156.30, with a stop loss below 154.60.
- Alternatively, sell below 154.60 with targets at 154.20-153.80, with stops above 155.00.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair experienced a sharp dip to 1.2653 after UK CPI data slightly beat forecasts, failing to offset broader dollar strength. Upcoming UK retail sales figures and Bank of England commentary are expected to play a critical role in shaping the pair’s direction. On the technical side, the MACD shows bearish divergence, while the Stochastic Oscillator indicates oversold conditions. The 14-day RSI suggests consolidation near current levels.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.2650-1.2630 with targets at 1.2680-1.2710 and 1.2740-1.2770, with a stop loss below 1.2600.
- Alternatively, sell below 1.2600 with targets at 1.2570-1.2540, with stops above 1.2650.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on U.S. initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which could provide further clarity on the health of the U.S. economy and impact dollar strength. The Eurozone PMI releases will likely set the tone for the EUR/USD, while UK retail sales are expected to influence GBP/USD.
Additionally, the yen’s performance against the dollar will be shaped by shifts in risk sentiment and bond yields. Traders should brace for significant moves as markets digest these critical data points and central bank signals.