As we head into Monday, November 11, 2024, global markets are poised for another week of potential volatility, driven by a series of crucial economic data releases from the U.S. and abroad. The U.S. dollar remains in focus, with traders closely monitoring the upcoming data and Federal Reserve speeches that could shape expectations for monetary policy. In particular, retail sales, industrial production, and various Fed speakers will provide insights into the U.S. economic outlook.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair has seen substantial movement influenced by economic uncertainties in the Eurozone and the U.S. The GBP/USD pair has also exhibited volatility amid concerns over the U.K. economic landscape. The USD/JPY pair is responding to shifts in risk sentiment as investors gauge global market stability.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair experienced a sharp decline, closing around the 1.0718 level after significant downward pressure throughout the recent sessions. The pair’s drop was influenced by weaker economic sentiment and mixed signals from both sides of the Atlantic. Technically, the MACD is trending below the zero line, indicating bearish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce. The 14-day RSI also points toward a bearish outlook but hints at possible consolidation in the near term.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
Sell below 1.0720-1.0700 with targets at 1.0680-1.0650 and 1.0620-1.0600, with a stop loss above 1.0750. Alternatively, consider buying above 1.0750 with targets at 1.0780-1.0800, with stops below 1.0700.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair mirrored the EUR/USD’s downward trajectory, closing around the 1.2916 level after hitting a session low. This decline reflects ongoing concerns about the U.K. economy amidst high inflation and slow growth. Technically, the MACD remains in negative territory, suggesting sustained selling pressure, while the Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold levels, indicating the possibility of a near-term rebound. The 14-day RSI is also pointing downwards, reinforcing the pair’s current bearish trend.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
Sell below 1.2920-1.2900 with targets at 1.2870-1.2850 and 1.2820-1.2800, with a stop loss above 1.2950. Alternatively, consider buying above 1.2950 with targets at 1.2980-1.3000, with stops below 1.2900.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
The USD/JPY pair has been consolidating near the 152.60 level after recent fluctuations. The Japanese yen has shown some resilience as risk sentiment fluctuates in the global markets. Technically, the MACD remains close to the zero line, indicating limited momentum in either direction, while the Stochastic Oscillator shows a neutral stance. The 14-day RSI reflects a slight upward tilt, hinting at potential strength for the dollar against the yen in the short term.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 152.60-152.80 with targets at 153.00-153.30 and 153.50-153.80, with a stop loss below 152.30. Alternatively, consider selling below 152.30 with targets at 152.00-151.80, with stops above 152.60.
Market Outlook
The U.S. economic data, including retail sales and industrial production, along with speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, will be key factors influencing the dollar’s strength this week. In the Eurozone, ECB communications and industrial production data will also play a significant role in shaping the euro’s trajectory. The pound remains vulnerable to U.K. economic data, particularly employment figures, which may provide further direction for the GBP/USD pair.
Overall, the market is expected to remain sensitive to economic data and central bank communications, with the potential for increased volatility as traders react to new developments.