As we head into Thursday, October 3, 2024, global markets are positioned for a session that could see heightened volatility, driven by a series of significant economic data releases, including EUR/USD rebound amid nonfarm data. The U.S. dollar remains the focal point as traders react to recent data and prepare for upcoming reports, particularly the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Crude Oil Inventories data.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair experienced a choppy session, largely influenced by mixed economic signals from the Eurozone and the U.S. The euro remains under pressure amid concerns about the region’s economic outlook, with traders awaiting further insights from the European Central Bank (ECB) and U.S. data, including employment reports.
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair experienced a sharp sell-off, reflecting renewed strength in the U.S. dollar and weak UK economic data. The movements were also influenced by positioning ahead of BoE member speeches and the latest PMI releases.
The USD/JPY pair exhibited notable volatility, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to risk sentiment and Japanese economic data. Traders are closely monitoring developments as they assess the implications of U.S. crude oil inventory data and the broader global risk appetite.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD Rebound Amid Nonfarm Data
The EUR/USD pair traded with heightened volatility, closing near the 1.1074 level after a significant drop. The pair has seen a sharp sell-off due to stronger-than-expected U.S. data and ongoing concerns about the Eurozone economy.
On the technical front, the MACD indicator is hovering near the zero line, showing minimal momentum and suggesting indecision in the market. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, indicating that a potential rebound may be on the horizon. The 14-day RSI is also in oversold territory, reflecting the pair’s downward movement.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.1070-1.1050 with targets at 1.1100-1.1130 and 1.1160, with a stop loss below 1.1030.
- Alternatively, consider short positions below 1.1030 with targets of 1.1000-1.0970, with stops above 1.1070.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair experienced significant downside momentum, trading near 1.3285 after a steep decline. The pound faced selling pressure throughout the session due to weak UK economic data and renewed U.S. dollar strength.
On the technical side, the MACD is signaling bearish momentum with the signal line trending downward. The Stochastic Oscillator is entering oversold territory, suggesting a possible corrective bounce in the near term. However, the 14-day RSI remains neutral, offering no clear directional bias.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.3280-1.3250 with targets at 1.3220-1.3200 and 1.3170, with a stop loss above 1.3310.
- Alternatively, consider long positions above 1.3310 with targets of 1.3340-1.3370, with stops below 1.3280.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
The USD/JPY pair exhibited volatility, trading near 143.56 after fluctuating throughout the session. The pair remains supported by broader U.S. dollar strength, though Japanese data provided some stabilization for the yen.
On the technical front, the MACD remains bullish, with strong momentum supporting the dollar. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought levels, signaling caution for those holding long positions. The 14-day RSI is neutral, reflecting consolidation near current levels.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 143.50-143.20 with targets at 143.80-144.10 and 144.40, with a stop loss below 143.00.
- Alternatively, consider selling below 143.00 with targets of 142.70-142.40, with stops above 143.50.
EUR/USD Rebound Amid Nonfarm Data
Looking ahead, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Crude Oil Inventories will be key events to watch as they provide critical insights into U.S. economic strength and risk sentiment. The GBP/USD will be influenced by BoE member speeches and the release of UK PMIs, while the EUR/USD remains vulnerable to both ECB announcements and U.S. data.
In Japan, the yen is likely to remain under pressure as traders keep an eye on risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. Overall, the market is expected to remain sensitive to economic data and central bank communications, with potential for increased volatility as traders react to new information.