As we head into Monday, April 21, 2025, global financial markets appear cautiously optimistic, following a week of mixed data across major economies. With the U.S. dollar reacting to recent inflationary readings and consumer sentiment data, traders now shift their focus to the week ahead, eyeing key macroeconomic releases including home sales, durable goods orders, and central bank commentary.
In currency markets, price action has been erratic yet directionally informative, offering both swing and intraday opportunities. Economic indicators from the U.S., Eurozone, and U.K. played a critical role in shaping sentiment, while geopolitical developments and oil-related trends kept commodity-linked currencies on edge.
EUR/USD
Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair consolidated gains near the 1.1390–1.1400 zone after recovering from a volatile decline early on Friday. The price movement suggests a build-up of buying momentum, with the pair stabilizing above the short-term moving average. A breakout above the 1.1400 psychological level could unlock further upside.
- MACD: Converging near zero, suggesting indecision but with potential bullish momentum brewing.
- RSI (14): Flat but steady around the 50-55 zone, signaling consolidation.
- Stochastic: Resetting from overbought conditions, suggesting a short-term pause.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.1400 with targets at 1.1430–1.1450, stop loss below 1.1370.
- Sell below 1.1370 with targets at 1.1340–1.1320, stop loss above 1.1400.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair showed impressive strength, climbing steadily to test 1.3290 after forming a higher low near 1.3210. The sustained bullish structure hints at a trend continuation, supported by better-than-expected U.K. PMIs and resilient consumer sentiment.
- MACD: Rising with bullish histograms.
- RSI: Hovering near 65–70, indicating overbought territory but with trend support.
- Price Action: Clear ascending channel; no major rejection signs yet.
Trading Strategy: Buy on Breakout
- Buy above 1.3300 with targets at 1.3340–1.3360, stop loss below 1.3260.
- Sell only if below 1.3240, targeting 1.3210–1.3180, with a stop above 1.3280.
USD/CAD
Technicals in Focus
USD/CAD fell sharply toward the 1.3835 level after failing to sustain above 1.3900, reflecting weakness in the U.S. dollar and strength in oil-related sentiment, especially following upbeat Canadian housing and retail figures.
- MACD: Bearish crossover, below zero, signaling strong downside pressure.
- RSI: Around 40, trending lower.
- Price Action: Formed a lower high and lower low – classic downtrend structure.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.3840 with targets at 1.3800–1.3775, stop loss above 1.3885.
- Buy only on sustained break above 1.3900, targeting 1.3930–1.3960, stop below 1.3860.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, Monday’s light economic calendar allows the market to digest the past week’s data, particularly soft U.S. durable goods orders and housing metrics. Volatility is likely to pick up mid-week with the release of GDP figures and consumer inflation expectations.
With the U.S. Leading Index declining and ECB’s Lane set to speak again this week, EUR pairs could be sensitive to dovish cues. Meanwhile, GBP pairs are likely to stay bid as long as the U.K. data continues outperforming. The Canadian dollar may maintain strength on the back of stable oil inventory levels and upbeat domestic demand.