As we head into Thursday, March 27, 2025, global markets are on edge amid a series of mixed economic releases, with the U.S. dollar facing increased scrutiny. Investors are digesting weaker U.S. consumer confidence data and a drop in crude oil inventories, while attention now turns to the upcoming Core PCE data and jobless claims—both pivotal in shaping near-term expectations for Fed policy.
In the currency markets, the GBP/USD pair came under selling pressure after softer-than-expected UK CPI data and dovish signals in the UK’s Spring Forecast Statement. Meanwhile, USD/CAD remained volatile as Canadian GDP matched forecasts, but price action was heavily influenced by crude oil stockpile numbers and broader USD sentiment. The USD/JPY pair showed resilience, climbing higher despite a softer greenback, supported by rising U.S. yields and some demand for safe-haven positioning.
GBP/USD
Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair weakened through the session, trading near 1.2889 as inflation figures missed expectations and bearish momentum dominated the chart. The pair broke through key support levels and consolidated lower after a sharp drop during the London and New York overlap. Price action remains choppy and biased to the downside.
- MACD shows widening negative histograms, signaling strengthening bearish momentum.
- Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce, though conviction is weak.
- 14-day RSI sits below 40, confirming bearish control.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
Sell below 1.2890–1.2870 with targets at 1.2840–1.2810, and stop loss above 1.2915.
Alternatively, long positions above 1.2915 could target 1.2940–1.2960, with stops below 1.2870.
USD/CAD
Technicals in Focus
USD/CAD was marked by significant swings, closing near 1.4272 after a rebound attempt met resistance. Canadian GDP data met expectations, but the pair was largely driven by oil inventory dynamics and short-term sentiment on the U.S. dollar. Price recovered mid-session but faded into the close.
- MACD remains below the zero line, but the histogram is flattening, hinting at slowing bearish momentum.
- Stochastic Oscillator has exited oversold levels, indicating room for a short-term retracement.
- 14-day RSI is hovering around 45, showing indecision.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
Sell below 1.4280–1.4260 with targets at 1.4230–1.4200, and a stop loss above 1.4305.
Alternatively, consider buying above 1.4305 for a push toward 1.4340–1.4370, with stops under 1.4260.
USD/JPY
Technicals in Focus
USD/JPY remained buoyant throughout the session, trading near 150.56 after bouncing off lows around 149.90. The pair recovered despite broad dollar weakness, supported by steady U.S. yields and moderate risk aversion. Price action formed higher lows and higher highs on the M5 chart, suggesting sustained intraday strength.
- MACD has crossed above the signal line, with rising histograms pointing to renewed bullishness.
- Stochastic Oscillator is trending higher but not yet overbought.
- 14-day RSI is near 60, confirming moderate upward momentum.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
Buy above 150.50–150.30 with targets at 150.85–151.10, and a stop loss below 150.10.
Alternatively, sell below 150.10 targeting 149.75–149.50, with a stop above 150.40.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, Thursday’s U.S. Core PCE Prices (Q4) and jobless claims will be critical in gauging the strength of the U.S. economy and inflation dynamics. These figures may influence expectations ahead of the next Fed meeting. Also on the radar are EU Economic Forecasts, which could stir action in EUR pairs.
For the Canadian dollar, oil remains a key driver after crude inventories dropped by over 3 million barrels—supporting CAD strength. GBP traders will remain focused on how the market digests the Spring Forecast Statement and recent inflation misses.
Overall, markets remain data-driven, and with the U.S. dollar under pressure, traders should brace for short-term volatility around key economic releases.