As we approach the trading session for Friday, October 18, 2024, market participants remain on edge, following a series of key economic events that have shaped sentiment throughout the week. The U.S. dollar has maintained its strength, bolstered by robust U.S. retail sales data and a positive surprise in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast. The market remains particularly sensitive to signals from the U.S. economy, with traders eyeing upcoming Fed speakers and crude oil inventory data for additional insight.
Meanwhile, in the UK, disappointing inflation figures released earlier in the week have dampened expectations for further tightening by the Bank of England. The GBP/USD pair has been under intense pressure, with the latest CPI reading coming in flat at 0.0% MoM. Investors now await the UK’s core retail sales data on Friday, which could offer clues about consumer sentiment and retail performance amid growing economic headwinds. Across the Atlantic, the EUR/USD pair is also struggling as Eurozone data continues to reflect a slowdown, heightening concerns over the region’s economic outlook.
On the commodity front, volatility in USD/CAD has been driven by crude oil dynamics, with inventory reports showing mixed signals. Oil prices initially received a boost from a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, but concerns about future demand weighed on the Canadian dollar. The ECB’s latest policy statement has also added uncertainty to the outlook, as traders try to gauge the central bank’s stance on future interest rate hikes.
EUR/USD

Technicals in Focus
The EUR/USD pair extended its losses, closing around 1.0826 amid sustained dollar strength. Eurozone economic data, particularly industrial production figures, failed to provide the support the euro needed, leading to a subdued performance. The MACD continues to show bearish momentum, and the Stochastic Oscillator is deep in oversold territory, hinting at a possible rebound. However, the 14-day RSI remains weak, reflecting a lack of buying pressure.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.0840-1.0820 with targets at 1.0780-1.0750, and a stop above 1.0870.
- Alternatively, buy above 1.0870 with targets at 1.0900-1.0930, with stops below 1.0820.
GBP/USD

Technicals in Focus
The GBP/USD pair faced significant selling pressure throughout the session, dropping to 1.2982 as weak UK inflation data continued to weigh on the pound. Markets are pricing in the likelihood of the Bank of England pausing any further rate hikes, which has added to the bearish outlook. The MACD remains negative, indicating ongoing bearish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator nears oversold levels. The 14-day RSI points to weakness, keeping the pair in a vulnerable position ahead of the retail sales report.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell
- Sell below 1.3000-1.2980 with targets at 1.2940-1.2920, and a stop above 1.3050.
- Alternatively, buy above 1.3050 with targets at 1.3090-1.3120, with stops below 1.2980.
USD/CAD

Technicals in Focus
The USD/CAD pair exhibited notable volatility, rebounding from 1.3760 before settling near 1.3792. Although a decline in U.S. crude inventories provided initial support to the Canadian dollar, the stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report shifted sentiment back in favor of the greenback. On the technical side, the MACD is trending higher, signaling growing bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator remains neutral, while the 14-day RSI suggests mild upward movement, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.
Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy
- Buy above 1.3800-1.3820 with targets at 1.3860-1.3890, and a stop below 1.3770.
- Alternatively, sell below 1.3770 with targets at 1.3740-1.3720, with stops above 1.3820.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the UK core retail sales data and any developments from the ECB’s latest press conference. U.S. crude oil inventory levels and updates from Fed officials will also be closely monitored, with traders evaluating the impact of these releases on market direction. The Atlanta Fed’s latest forecast offers some optimism for US growth, providing a potential tailwind for the dollar.
The market remains highly reactive to economic updates, with volatility likely to persist through the end of the week. A weaker UK retail sales report could amplify bearish sentiment toward the pound, while stronger-than-expected U.S. data could extend the dollar’s dominance. Overall, market participants will stay alert for any signals from central banks and economic reports that could alter their trading strategies going forward.