USD Weakens Amid CPI Surge – 13 September 2024

As we head into Friday, September 13, 2024, global markets are reacting to key economic data and central bank policy shifts. U.S. inflation data and the ECB’s recent interest rate decision continue to shape the monetary landscape, leaving traders focused on the movements of major currency pairs.

In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair saw significant volatility, largely due to U.S. inflation data and concerns about economic growth in the Eurozone. Despite a brief recovery attempt, the euro remained pressured, closing near the 1.1060 level. Traders are keeping a close eye on upcoming ECB commentary and U.S. inflation expectations to determine the pair’s next direction.

Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair experienced a strong recovery, closing near the 1.3100 level. After earlier weakness following disappointing U.K. economic data, the pound rebounded, supported by market speculation over future monetary policy. Traders are now watching for additional economic releases from the U.K. and the U.S. to assess the pound’s short-term outlook.

The USD/JPY pair saw fluctuations throughout the session, closing around 142.02 as traders balanced U.S. dollar strength with broader market uncertainty. Key data on Japanese industrial production, along with U.S. inflation figures, will be pivotal in determining the pair’s direction in the coming days.

EUR/USD

Technicals in Focus

The EUR/USD pair ended near the 1.1060 level after an attempted recovery lost steam. The pair is reacting to a mix of U.S. inflation data and economic concerns in the Eurozone. Technically, the MACD shows continued bearish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is entering oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term bounce. The 14-day RSI remains neutral, indicating potential consolidation ahead.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

  • Sell below 1.1060-1.1040 with targets at 1.1010-1.0990 and 1.0960-1.0940, with a stop loss above 1.1090.
  • Alternatively, consider buying above 1.1090 with targets of 1.1120-1.1150, with stops below 1.1040.

GBP/USD

Technicals in Focus

The GBP/USD pair recovered from earlier losses, closing near 1.3100 as traders responded to evolving market expectations on future U.K. policy. On the technical side, the MACD suggests bullish momentum building, while the Stochastic Oscillator is neutral. The 14-day RSI is turning upwards, indicating the potential for further gains.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

  • Buy above 1.3100-1.3120 with targets at 1.3150-1.3180 and 1.3200-1.3230, with a stop loss below 1.3050.
  • Alternatively, consider selling below 1.3050 with targets at 1.3020-1.2990, with stops above 1.3100.

USD/JPY

Technicals in Focus

The USD/JPY pair hovered around 142.02 after a volatile session, largely driven by U.S. inflation data and concerns over Japanese economic performance. The MACD remains neutral, while the Stochastic Oscillator signals a potential recovery from oversold conditions. The 14-day RSI is consolidating, suggesting mixed momentum.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

  • Buy above 142.20-142.40 with targets at 142.70-143.00 and 143.30-143.60, with a stop loss below 141.90.
  • Alternatively, consider selling below 141.90 with targets at 141.60-141.30, with stops above 142.20.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, the U.S. inflation expectations and ECB’s future policies will be critical in determining the EUR/USD’s trajectory. In the U.K., upcoming economic reports, particularly related to inflation and labor market performance, will be key in assessing the pound’s strength. Meanwhile, the yen will be influenced by Japan’s industrial data and further developments in U.S. inflation reports. Global markets are expected to remain volatile, with traders preparing for further data releases and central bank statements over the next few sessions.